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ECON7030 Economics Research Project

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ECON7030 Economics Research Project

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Course Code: ECON7030
University: The University Of Sydney

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Country: Australia

The primary objective of this study is:

To identify the influence of terrorism in the context of socio-economic development of all countries across the world

This primary objective is supported by various auxiliary objectives, which are:

To evaluate that the process that how terrorism can develop to affect the economic progress of any community
To understand the impact of terrorism in the context of social  life of the citizens
To understand that how terrorism distract a community from enjoying economic prosperity; and
To evaluate the impact of terrorism on neighbouring countries along with trading partners of the suffered nation.
How does terrorism affect socio-economic development of both developed and developing countries all over the world?

The other questions of secondary research questions are:

How does terrorism develop the economic progress of a community?
How can terrorism develop to affect the economic progress of any community?
How does terrorism affect social life of the citizens?
How does terrorism distract a community from enjoying economic prosperity?
How terrorism does affect on neighbouring countries along with trading partners of the suffered nation?


Terrorism can adversely affect socioeconomic development of various regions across the world. Due to strong conflict between terrorist groups and armed military, many countries have experienced violence (Sönmez and Sönmez 2017). This in turn has created huge trouble for policymakers to develop social and economic framework uninterruptedly. This concept has become a serious issue for both developed and developing countries, especially for those, who have ample amount of natural resources (Ragazzi 2016). Thus, the study intends to discuss, analyse and obtain outcome about the impact of terrorism on socio-economic development of a country. The following section of this chapter will provide a brief background related to the impact of terrorism based on which further objectives of the research can be derived. Moreover, this chapter will also include research questions that can help the study to obtain its desired outcomes.
Background of the research:
According to economists and socialists, terrorism is a systematic process through which terrorists spread violence to generate threats. The chief focus of these terrorist groups is to obtain certain social or political objectives (Böckler et al. 2018). Terrorism does not have any standard definition, as different countries and agencies define terrorisms from different aspects. For instance, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation, terrorism is an unlawful action, which is used to obtain certain social and political objectives (Combs 2017). However, many researchers have not followed such definitions and further they have provided a consensus meaning. Nigeria is also a developing country, where most of the attacks occur in northern as well as northeast part of the country (Obi and Ezeogu 2017). Since 2016, the country has experienced almost nine attacks.
Research aims and objectives:
Research aims:
The chief focus of this study is to analyse the impact of terrorism on the developing countries’ socio-economic development as a whole. However, the study does not consider any specific country in this context though give special emphasis on third world countries.
Problem of the statement:
Terrorism ruins peaceful environment of a country while some countries spend their economic gain for fighting against this adverse social issue. Based on the report of World Economic Forum 2018, third world countries or developing and underdeveloped countries have experienced stagnation during long-term in the context of growth and development (Agusiobo 2018). Citizens in those countries cannot access their minimum requirement. Instead of huge resource endowment, many countries remain unable to achieve higher level of socio economic development over the years (Coccia 2018). Thus, it can be said that terrorism acts as a significant hindrance for paralysing a community’s social development and economic growth. Consequently, terrorism has become a serious issue for developing countries instead of developed ones.
Research Hypothesis:
To conduct the research work, the study has considered some research hypothesis, which are null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis. The null hypothesis (H0) states that terrorism does not adversely affect third world countries’ economic growth and development. On the contrary, alternative hypothesis (H1) states that terrorism adversely affects economic growth and development of third world country. Hence, the hypothesis of this study considers most of the third world countries along with their terrorism history.
Structure of the study:
The entire study divides into six chief chapters, which are, introduction, literature review, research methodology, results, discussion and conclusion along with recommendation. Introduction chapter provides brief discussion about the research topic through providing research aims and objectives. Based on these, the study has developed some research questions focusing on the impact of terrorism on socio-economic development of countries all over the world. In this context, the research set some hypothesis depending on this issue taking special emphasis on third world countries. In chapter two, literature review will focus on some related discussion provided by other researchers that states about various affects of terrorism in the economy of both developed and developing countries. After that, chapter three will consider research methodology considering research approach, research design, data collection method and sampling method. Moreover, this chapter will also discuss about limitations of the entire study.  In the following chapter, the study will receive outcomes through descriptive study. In chapter five, the study will discuss about entire outcomes briefly. At last, in chapter six, the study will provide conclusion along with recommendations.
There is no doubt that terrorism is being considered as one of the most troubling and negatively impactful problem all over the world. The action of certain organisations or individuals which has a particular aim to achieve something (though it may be completely unfair and unethical) by the way of terror and violence is being considered as terrorism (Estrada et al. 2015). For every terrorist organisation, there are two kinds of views that can be observed among the people. Some call these activities utter terrorism, other calls is a movement towards freedom. There is no doubt that many freedom movement throughout the world has been adopted the way of terrorism, but nowadays, most of the terrorist organisations are being driven by wrong principles and this led towards nothing but massive destruction. As a result, civilians are worst sufferers along with the government of the country (Hyderet al. 2015).  The main purpose of the terrorist organisations is to develop fear in the minds of the people so that these can pressurise the government to fulfil their demand. Thus, the terrorist activities has left a grieve impact over the global socio economic development.This section of the research will be concentrated to showcase the major impact of terrorism over the socio economic parameters. These factors are health service, education, economical growth, and the probable counter terrorism methods.
Effects of terrorism over the socio-economic environment
As it is stated above, every terrorist activity left a negatively impactful effect upon the affected people and each philanthropist all over the world. The losses which are incurred by the terrorist activities are huge, by taking into consideration the loss of life and properties. In every case, government and the common people is the worst sufferer (Khan and Estrada 2016). Apart from that, the psychological effect left on the mind of the people is also immense and these cause a malfunctioning in the social attire for a long time. Apart from that the terrorist activities can leave a huge impact upon the economy of the country by limiting the financial activities and diverting the foreign investment as these activities required a level of security due to the engagement of a substantial amount of capital. It also affects the defence budget of the government for the counter terrorism preventions and the insurance and security expenditure for the common citizen also increased by this action (Brockhoffet al. 2015).
Though the economical damage can be compensated in a matter of time by the government, the psychological effects of such incidents leave a severe effect upon the mind of the civilians which takes a long time to regenerate and thus hamper the overall development. Terrorist activities bring trauma and fear and it can take a long time for the civilians to go back to normal lifestyle which certainly affects the social and economical activities. The terrorist attack can be considered as the most disturbing disasters as these attacks are being caused intentionally (Rose 2015). The impact of the terrorist activities and the longevity of this impact upon the mind of the people depend upon the scale and the incurred loss of both lives and property due to such incidents.
Results of terrorism over the socio-economic environment
Social effects
First of all, the most severe impact of terrorism over the social structure of a terrorism affected area is the hamper in studies of the children of the area. One of the main reasons for this is the trauma of the previous attack and the fear of the repetition of such disaster. The parents feel insecure to send their children to school to continue their study again and think it safe to keep them at home. Apart from this, another reason for this problem is completely economical (Drakos and Kallandranis 2015). Though the government in every region tries to compensate for the loss which is incurred by the people, the recovery of the exact loss amount cannot be provided by the government. Thus, even after announcing certain aids for the education of the children’s, the total numbers of drop outs from schools increases after every terrorist attacks. Either the child has to do something to help his or her family economically or the income of the parents decreases drastically so that they cannot bear the expenses anymore to afford good education for their children. Though there are certain aids which is being offered by the government, the uncertainty and fear of the unforeseen future holds the families back from providing a quality education to their children (Shahzadet al. 2016). This effect takes a really long time and depends on the scale of the incident. Apart from these, terrorism destroys the educational infrastructure. In case of the injury or death of the teachers or the destruction of the institutes, the overall educational environment is being destroyed and these leaves a grieve impact upon the socio educational environment of the country.
The second most important effect of terrorism can be observed upon the quality of health service of the sufferers of such attacks.  The families who lost their near and dear ones cannot be compensated by any other means (Khan et al. 2016). But the family who has one or multiple members being injured by such attack and is being completely bedridden for a long duration, faces a serious problem. These members could be their primary income persons and after such misfortune, the source of income for the family completely stops. Though the government tries to pay the necessary expenses for the treatment of the survivors, the basic needs of the family cannot be fulfilled. Beside this, the elderly persons who witnessed the death of the younger members of the family often goes in complete state of trauma and that cannot be compensated by any means (Bandyopadhyayet al. 2018). Beside this, due to the subsidiary effects of the terrorist attack, the supply of the health equipments and other things which are needed for the treatment of the patient  become inadequate, which leads to another problem. The patients suffer from the lack of medical services and this is another horrible thing which can be happen in the subsequent periods of a terrorist attack. Apart from this, the funds which were being saved for the treatment of the family members are being spent in the treatment of the survivors and this cause an endangered situation for any upcoming medical emergency in the family. In such scenario, the upcoming health benefit which was pre-planned by the family is being destroyed (Baker 2014).
Due to the terrorist attacks, it is true that many well-wisher of the affected family extend their helping hands both mentally and financially along with the government. But as the tragedy starts to fade out from the mind of the people, this help also starts to decrease. In such scenario, it is possible that the family will not be as financially stable as it was before the occurrence of the misfortune. Thus, the family will not get enough time to recover themselves from such grieve situation. The decline of the socio economic status is undoubtedly one of the major impacts of terrorist attacks over the social development.
Economical Effect
One of the major effects which are observed in the areas where terrorist attacks were taken place is the decline of the number of total employed person. Due to the death and the injury of the people, the number of total employed person is being drastically decreased. These persons can even be the only earning member of the family. In such scenario, the financial and economical condition of the family is being decreased (Bilgel and Karahasan 2017). Apart from that, the terrorist attacks in the industrial areas can collapse several industries which can also cause significant changes in the employment ratio of the locality.
Apart from this, the impact of the terrorist activities can also be seen upon the GDP of the country. A survey which took place in 2004 has shown that the overall GDP of 177 terrorism affected countries has dropped by 0.48% in last ten years due to the impact of terrorist attacks (Enders et al. 2016). This impact is more severe upon the developing countries particularly the countries situated in Asia as these countries are the most affected by terrorism.
Apart from this, the impact of terrorist activities can also be seen upon the foreign direct investment of the country. As it is established that the FDI represents the 5% of the GDP growth of the country, it left a huge impact over the economy of the country (Baker 2014). In the survey took place in 2004 reveals that the domestic terrorism can decrease the total FDI amount by $323 million to $512 million, where as the transnational terrorism activity decrease the FDI amount by $296 million to $736 million (Garmendiaet al. 2016). Apart from that, the received foreign aid to the country for the terrorist attack also decreases the amount of FDI in the concurrent period.
Hike in the prices of the daily commodities is another concern for the development of the economy of the country. The government needs to implement certain policies to fight against the terrorist activities which caused a significant hike in the prices of the goods. For this, the people suffer from severe problems due to the declining economy (Dash 2017). There can also be a problem generated from the supply of the goods and due to the increased demand; the prices of the goods are being increased automatically.
Along with this, the effect of terrorist attacks can also be seen upon the international trade. Due to the rises in the cost and prices of the raw materials necessary for the business, the international trade is being hampered and this caused a severe impact over the economy of the country. Apart from that, due to the transnational terrorism, the relationship between two nations is being affected which led to a disagreement regarding the international trade. From the international statistics, two most terror-affected nations (i.e. India and Pakistan) are the developing countries (Fair et al. 2016). Due to the disturbed political condition between these two countries, the international trade between them is affected seriously. Apart from that, the lack of security in the terror prone countries also led to the lack of International trade due to the potential risks involved in it. It is evident from the survey that the increased terrorist attacks in these developing countries have decreased the international trade by 4% in the last decade (Costalliet al. 2017). The production pattern of these countries has also being disrupted by the terrorist attacks and this causes a significant change in the international trading.
From the above statistics, it can be seen that the top 5 most affected countries by terrorism are the developing countries and these countries holds half of the number of terrorism incidents. In this list, countries like Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq and Gaza is not included as the problem which is occurring is those countries are less terrorist activities and more war like situations (Enders et al. 2016). There are controversies regarding the activities of these organisations regarding their principle of work. But in any cases, it is the civilians who are the most sufferers in this scenario.
From the discussed subject matter, it can be seen that the negative impact of terrorism over the countries leaves a severe destruction over the socio-economic structure of the country. Apart from this, as the developing countries are most affected by such problems, the economy and social structure of these countries cannot be developed as they were meant to be. In order to fix this issue, the government needs to implement more effective counter terrorism policies in order to fix such issues which can be burdened in the way of development of the countries. The budget for the security and defence of the government will be increased by this decision, but for the greater good of the country, the respective government must imply those policies in order to make a terrorism free world.
To obtain any productive outcome, proper research work is essential. For doing this, proper research methodology is required with relevant framework. The entire methodology will discuss about research philosophy along with research approach, research design and data collection in the following section. Moreover, this chapter will also consider sampling method and ethical consideration that can help this study to proceed further.
Research Philosophy:
Research philosophy discusses about the process through which the entire research work will be conducted. In this study, the concept of interpretivism philosophy has been applied. Interpretivism is an approach related with social science (Packard 2017). A qualitative methodology depends on both human subject and trained researchers for measuring some phenomena through proper observations and interviews. The chief purpose of adopting interpretivism philosophy is to understand the impact of terrorism on countries with the help of proper evidences.
Research Approach:
Research approach implies proper plan and procedure consisting with some assumptions that considers the method of data collection, analysis as well as interpretation. For collecting data, the researcher can consider any one of all methods of research, which are interview, observation and document analysis. For this study, document analysis will be considered as the main research method from both print media and electronic data.
Research Design:
Research design is represents a set of methods along with procedures for collecting and analysing variables for the specific research process. Hence, the research design is formed to obtain answers of all research questions. The study collects qualitative research methodology for descriptive design to find proper data related to impact of terrorism. This qualitative data considers five approaches, which are narrative, phenomenology, grounded theory, ethnography and case study. However, this research work is going to consider case study of previous articles and journals for collecting secondary data on terrorism.
Data Collection:
The study is based on secondary data collecting from economic research journals, report of national development statistics, publications and newspaper articles. All data will focus on impact of terrorism on third world countries.
Sampling method:
To collect data, research study selects some established trading blocs across the world as sample to represent their member countries. Moreover, a non-random sampling technique is used for selecting specific countries as sample from each trading bloc for receiving research data in a complete format (Carlisle and Loadsman 2017). In this context, the data analysis will consider the synthesis of qualitative data in the form of descriptive report for disclosing important information related to the research topic.
Ethical Consideration:
Ethical considerations in research are a crucial part. Ethics set some norms or standards based on which the study can distinguish between right and wrong related to any issue of the entire research work. Hence, ethics in business considers between acceptable and unacceptable behaviours. This study also considers some ethical norms related with research. The entire data related with terrorism on some countries of trading blocs are collected from authentic and reliable sources. Moreover, outcomes collected from descriptive analysis will be unbiased and will focus on the true purpose of the entire research.
Limitation of the study:
The entire research study has some substantial limitation that can further restrict the researcher to draw successful conclusion for the entire work. The first limitation describes about the insufficient data related with vital information, as adequate qualitative data may be missing. This limitation can be reduced through using various data from different sources. The other limitation considers the time constraint for collecting and gathering information form secondary data sources. The limitation can be overcome through grouping and classifying the sources into different identical categories.   
After the entire discussion, a summary can be drawn on this chapter. The study considers interpretivism philosophy. After that, research approach selects document analysis for collecting information from both printing and digital resources. Research design is based on case study. In the next section, the study mentions that about the process of data collection through adopting non-random sampling technique. Furthermore, some ethical issues related to data collection and output have been considered as well.
This chapter is the most vital part of the entire study, as it will conduct descriptive study related to impact of terrorism. For doing so, the report will consider some specific countries related to different trading blocs. After that, the study will focus on journals, newspaper articles and other research papers for collecting relevant data.
Selecting Countries:
In modern world, terrorism becomes an important issue for both developed and developing countries. However, the study has chiefly focused on some selected third world countries on which this phenomenon has affected significantly. Thus, the study selects Kenya, Nigeria and Pakistan as the sample countries. Kenya is a member of the Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) (Eiselen 2018). In addition to this, Nigeria is the member of World Trade organisation (WTO). Pakistan has free trade agreement with other countries of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) (Ahmed, Rehman and Ozturk 2017).
Descriptive Analysis:
The following diagram has represented terrorism index in Kenya since 2008. This index measures the impact of both direct as well as negative impact of terrorism for which the economy experiences lives injuries, lost, psychological after-effects and property damages. Since 2009, this index has started to increase since 2009 until 2014 (Data.worldbank.org 2018). In 2015, it is decreased to 6.58 while in the next year it is decreased further.

Figure 1: Terrorism Index in Kenya
Source: (Tradingeconomics.com 2018)
Terrorist attack affects tourism sectors of Kenya. Hence, it is also essential to analyse the trend of tourism of Kenya for the last 10 years.

Figure 2: Tourists arrival in Kenya
Source: (Tradingeconomics.com 2018)
The foreign direct investment (FDI) also affects by terrorism. The following diagram represents the trend of FDI in Kenya for understanding its impact on the country’s economy. In 2010, the amount of foreign direct investment was 13984million Kenyan shilling and it remained low up in 2011 and 2013, accordingly (Tradingeconomics.com 2018).  

Figure 3: Foreign Direct investment in Kenya
Source: (Tradingeconomics.com 2018)
Terrorism index of Nigeria has also increased over the year. In 2008, country’s index was 5.79. However, it started to increase from 2010 and in 2015, this index was 9.31. However, in the next year, this index was reduced. Moreover, the index was 6.50 on an average (Tradingeconomics.com 2018).

Figure 4: Terrorism index of Nigeria
Source: (Tradingeconomics.com 2018)
Tourism sector plays vital role for developing Nigeria’s economic condition. However, due to large number of terror attack and instable social conditions, this number has remained low for the since 2008.

Figure 5: Receipts due to international tourists in Nigeria
Source: (Tradingeconomics.com 2018)
Due to massive effect of terrorist attack, foreign direct investment remains low for the last 10 years.

Figure 6: Foreign Direct investment in Nigeria
Source: (Tradingeconomics.com 2018)
Terrorism index of Pakistan has also remained high since 2008. However, after 2014, this index has stated to fall for the next two years.

Figure 7: Terrorism index of Pakistan
Source: (Tradingeconomics.com 2018)
The number of international tourists was low in Pakistan. However, it has started to increase since 2008 and has reached to the highest in 2011. Thus, according to the statistical data of World Bank, almost 1.16 million international tourists have visited this country (Tradingeconomics.com 2018). However, due to political, economical and social instability, this number has started to decline sharply in the next year.

Figure 8: No. of international tourists arrive in Pakistan
Source: (Data.worldbank.org 2018)
The amount of foreign direct investment in Pakistan was the lowest in 2012. However, after this year, the value has increased significantly over the year since 2012.

Figure 9: Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan
Source: (Tradingeconomics.com 2018)
This section will discuss the outcome of previous chapter in more descriptive way. Through discussing all outcomes, the study can come to the conclusion that whether terrorism has actually affected socio-economic condition of third world countries or not. Various economic and social consequences of Kenya, Nigeria and Pakistan will be discussed in this section.
Tourism in Kenya is an essential factor that plays significant role to develop the country’s economic condition. This is the second largest source through which the country can earn foreign exchange revenue. This sector has started to develop significantly since many years and consequently has provided significant percent to country’s national income and employment (Masinde and Buigut 2018). However, since 2000, tourism sector has started to shrink due to terrorism. According to travel advisors, tourism market in this country has declined for enormous number of terror attack (Mutisya, Kirwa and Maluki 2018). As a result, economic growth of this country has started to decline. Thus, the government has provided special focus on close linkage of terrorism and terrorists between 2000 and 2015. Terrorism also affects foreign direct investment (FDI) in this country. Between 2010 and 2012, some researchers have analysed about this issue (Kinyanjui 2014). Through applying various statistical processes, they have found that terrorism has affected FDI adversely.
The act of terrorism along with general insecurity has also affected Nigeria and for this the country needs general insecurity. The United Nation Security Council has focused on the issue of humanitarian and security, occurred due to special terrorist group along with other armed groups in Nigeria along with other two countries of Africa. Presently, the Central African countries have become the best target for terror attacks. Due to these attacks, the economy experiences cause devastating losses with large-scale. Moreover, people migrate in other places by large amount (Omotoso and Samuel 2018). In addition to this, terrorism also affects adversely economic development of Nigeria though discouraging trade as well as investment coming from local and foreign sources. The northeast area of Nigeria has experienced the worst condition for Boko Haram insurgency. For this, the country has gained negative perception of being an unsafe country (Ajogbeje, Adeniyi and Folarin 2017). This consequently has violated Nigeria’s profile from being a favourable international destination for travel, investment, tourism, migration and scholarship in international world.  
The direct impact of terrorism is seen in the tourism industry of Nigeria. The rate of receipt from international tourists in Nigeria has fluctuated over the year (Morrison et al. 2016). In most of years, this change of receipt is negative, which indictes that the number of international tourists has reduced over the year due to instable economic and social condition of Nigeria (Sulaiman 2018). Moreover, foreign countries also feel unsafe to invest huge amount of money in this country due to instable condition. Consequently, the amount of foreign direct investment has started to reduce since 2013.
Terrorism not only hampers social issue scenario of Pakistan but also hampers economic condition of this country adversely. For the last several decades, Pakistan has suffered from terrorism due to its wars against Afghanistan. In addition to this, other sources of conflict have reduced the economic growth of this country (Data.worldbank.org 2018). Therefore, the terrorism has adversely affect country’s foreign direct investment adversely (Estrada et al. 2015). Foreign countries reduced their investment due to political and economical instability. In addition to this, less number of foreign people also has visited in this country.
Hence, from the above discussion, it can be said that terrorism has significantly affect socio-political conditions of Kenya, Nigeria and Pakistan. From these, the study can successfully state that all other third world countries across the world have experienced the same in their socio-economic condition (Adnan and Fatima 2018). Due to lower foreign direct investment these countries cannot accumulate enough capital through which they can invest in their production process (Khan and Rasheed 2016). In addition to this, social instability also affects foreign tourists to visit in these countries with huge risks. Therefore, this economic and political instability also has hampered trade relationship of these three countries with others with which they have trade relationship (Alam, Akram and Iqbal 2017). Moreover, instable economic conditions also lead many people to do unethical activities that further have generated terrorism within these countries. Thus, after the entire discussion it can be said that null hypothesis is accepted and alternative hypothesis is accepted. This mean, terrorism has affected the country’s socio-economic conditions.
In this chapter the study has concluded entire discussion briefly after which some recommendations have also been provided. In recent world, this economic phenomenon has increased significantly and this in turn has adversely affect socio economic condition of many countries across the world. The research has aimed to analyse this consequences of terrorism with the help of some secondary data collected from journals, World Bank, newspapers and some authentic sources. The entire study has successfully addressed all primary and secondary objectives. Through analysing the impact of terrorism on foreign direct investment, the study has discussed about the process that how terrorism develops economic progress of any community. Moreover, to understand the social context of terrorism, the study has discussed about tourism service and the number of international tourists to understand that why they do not want to visit these countries due to social instability. Based, on this the study has also discussed that how terrorism has distracted a community from enjoying economic prosperity due to economic instability and uncertainty. Furthermore, economic slowdown of suffered countries has adversely affected their relations with others with which they trade. Hence, this issue also has huge impact on neighbouring countries as well.
After concluding the entire discussion, the report can provide some recommendations related that can further help other researchers to conduct the entire research work. The study has considered only third world countries to discuss the impact of terrorism on them. However, this phenomenon also has significant implications on developed and developing countries as well. For this, other researches can be done considering other countries as well. In addition to this, the study has considered terrorism index, foreign direct investment and tourism industry as the chief indicator to consider the economic and social consequences of these countries. Furthermore, the study has considered only qualitative aspects and discusses the entire concept in a descriptive way. However, quantitative research can also be done on this issue. Hence, through adopting proper statistical analysis, the study can further develop more research works.
Limitations of the study:
The main limitation of this study is time. Within short time period the study has collected all information. Moreover, the study has experienced difficulties to obtain proper secondary data as it requires from journals, newspapers and other articles.
Future Scope of the study:
This study has huge scope of further research. In future the research work based on this concept can accept more analysis through considering other countries. This study can further consider political aspects as well as psychological situation of citizens due to terror attack.
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