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N29071 Risk Management
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N29071 Risk Management
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Course Code: N29071
University: De Montfort University
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Country: United Kingdom
Question:
Briefly explain the concept of risk and vulnerablility.
Answer:
Risk and Risk Management Concepts (Literature Review)
In the year 2009, scientists, Andrew Hale along with Andrew Hopkins issued a safety Science special issue defining the different kinds of process safety indicators. The total process was completed by the help of researchers specifically the help included nineteen different contributions. Apart from this there were also safety experts and consultants of large companies of the market. The journals which were scientific by nature were restricted mainly to Ergonomics. The different parts of the following topic on risk management were presented from different sources of different countries and continents that included the likes of Asian, North American, European and Central Asian sources. The following sources helped the researchers to formulate their research in a much arranged and detailed way which was necessary for the proper functioning of the organization. Some of the main journals that have been taken as a main source for the following include the likes of Journal of Industrial Engineering, Journal of Loss Prevention in the process industries, Process Safety and Environmental Protection and many more as such. The issue was the start of the following literary review of the research. This included review of both the scientific and the professional literature. The International Organization of Oil and Gas Producers, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and many other similar organizations as such serve as the perfect literary source of the professional literature. The professional report can be considered to be one of the most genuine works and is generally acceptable to a much larger group of audience. Therefore the professional literature has a much larger scope when compared to any other forms of literary sources. There have been different instances where safety breach has led to fatal incidents. Some of the most prominent disasters are provided in the table below. This includes;
High Risk Industries
Period (1970 to 1980)
Period (2000 to 2010)
Nuclear Disaster
Chernobyl, 1986
Fukushima, 2011
Aerospace
Challenger, 1986
Colombia, 2003
Chemical & Petrochemical
Flixborough, 1976
Bhopal, 1984
Tolouse, 2001
Texas City, 2003
Railways
Clapham Junction, 1987
Ladbroke Grove, 1999
Maritime 1
Zeebrugge,1987
Costa Concordia, 2012
Maritime 2
Raxon Valdez, 1987
Erika, 2003
Air Traffic Management
Zagreb, 1976
Umberlingen, 2002
Fuel Storage
Port Edward Heriot, 1987
Bouncefield, 2005
Aviation
Tenerife,1977
Rio Paris, 2009
Normally Risk Management procedures involves a lot of different terms including the likes of the defense, protection layer, Safety critical element, safety functions and many more as such. The above mentioned disasters show that risk is involved in almost every kind of industries and that it acts as the main reason for the industries to take different safety measures to avoid such disasters. The coupling present between the different system elements reflects the presence or absence of buffers in between the system elements and also helps to create the variability of the system process steps. Leading and lagging are nowadays not approved by most of the modern authors. The rising levels of competition in the market and the economic condition of the market will be responsible for a number of different threats. This will force the management of the organizations to formulate different risk management strategies to counter the different threats. The measurement of this kind of risks is done by key indicators, safety performance indicators, performance indicators and many more as such. This kind of errors is almost unavoidable in the context of the organization in which they occur. The concept of resilience has been known for quite some time in the organizational theory. System dynamic models and theories emerged in the 1980s. However, there is little published empirical research on this topic. Safety metaphors, models and theories as a basis for process safety indicators must be thought to be one of the most important elements in the measurement of the risk within the industries. The HRO concept was introduced in Europe after a long period of time in the form of resilience engineering. If a hazard or energy becomes uncontrollable the different types of scenarios reaches the central event quite easily. The different technical errors that are related to the mechanical or chemical hazards are likely to reach the central event and different threats will be unrolling much quickly. The risk can occur due to a number of different reasons that includes the likes of negligence and inconsistency. This may include the likes of non-maintenance of the machines, wrong use of the machineries, non-maintenance of the different machines and many other factors as such. The models are said to be dynamic and complex in nature. A lot has been discussed about the process of safety indicators. Different researches suggest that the organization have been there. The epidemiological models and theories are emphasizing on the latent features and the conditions originating from the organization. The management of the organization needs to be
Risk and Vulnerability Concepts
The exploitation of new cost-effective operational concepts, the use of digital technologies and increased dependence on cyber structures. The oil and gas industry is exposed to use of the new sets of different vulnerabilities and threats. Cyber attacks have grown in stature and sophistication making them more difficult to detect and defend against and costing companies increasing the sums of money to recover from. Risk can be determined as a product that causes threat and is vulnerable. It can be referred to as the anticipated consequences over a definite period of time to a defined set of targets, resulting from a pre determined set of threats.
Vulnerability
The vulnerability is one of the most key elements of a particular risk. Cyber security is one of the main kinds of vulnerability. The different types of cyber security vulnerabilities are as follows;
Lack of Cyber security awareness and training among the employees of the organization
The different types of remote works during operations and maintenance
Use of the different standard types of IT products with different kinds of known vulnerabilities in the production of the oil and gas
A limited cyber security culture that exists among the vendors, suppliers and the contractors of the oil and gas industry
The use of both mobile devices and storage units including the likes of smart phones
Insufficient separation of different types of the networks through which data or information is transmitted
The different kinds of data networks between the onshore and offshore facilities of the organization
Insufficient amount of physical security of different types of data rooms, cabinets and many more as such
The software used in the organization are mostly vulnerable to the outside threats
The use of outdated and ageing control systems in facilities
Industrial automation, control and safety systems, used in the oil and gas sector are to a large extent digitized and dependent on different kinds of digital technology the networks that are used between the process equipment and control systems used in the oil and gas sector are the key elements to its success.
According to the American ANSI and API Recommended Practice 754, the theme is specifically intended at the refineries and chemical industry. There is a way of offering brief decision and a symbol for describing the standard purposes (Suter II). The process of safety management system is required to determine the prominent accident scenarios and the hurdles associated with each of the scenario, which is commonly known as the risk control system or RCS. Different documents are created by a bunch of experts who belong to the public and private sectors. Such documents are based on the perfect practices of calculating the safety performance. Aqlan and Ebrahim stated that the initial factors include the significant risks, accident scenarios and the hurdles associated with the same.
The health and safety in workplace aimed at the management experts norms are based on the British chemical industry practices in order to choose develop and incorporate the process indicators for the significant risk assessment. Such process indicators include a road map as well. Similarly, an argument can be raised for those accidents, which are caused due to the fault of the organization. If it can be thought rationally, then the safety process indicators can be made as per the process and the company (Daly). The discussion is evident along with the complex theory- indicator relationship, models and metaphors.
Figure 1: Process safety indicator pyramid
Source: (Duggan)
Discussion
Often, the installations in the process of production might touch the border of the probable safety design cover. However, contemporary research can counter on this matter by mentioning about the threats of major accidents from the minor and casual accidents. The smaller accidents signify the upcoming fatal accidents. In this respect, it can be argued that the discovery of silver bullet is not yet completed successfully. The formation of the process safety indicators can be directed from the safety models, metaphors and theories.
Estep stated that the distinguishing feature between the management and organizational indicators are less focused in different literature. The importance of the process indicators only lie in presuming the feasibility of the objects to find out if the planned effort was performed in a correct manner. According to the creative quality of the experts, the expert operators are able to take supportive measures for prevention of major accidents in the future days. Such relationship has the drawback of restricting to similar category of risk where it is suggested that both minor and major risks can occur in likely scenario.
In this respect, the scientific literature can be argued based on the distinction between leading and lagging. As it is based on the probable performance pyramid, which consists of hierarchy of the result indicators for the result of effective safety management systems are considered as the top priority. However, it might be considered as very futuristic to utilize the process indicators as a sign for the upcoming incidents. Farsalinos and Riccardo stated that there is no such information available from the numerical quantity. In that case, origin matters. At this point, the topic is reflected with the use of previous eight or nine years, safety process indicators in the area of professional and scientific press.
The process of relationship between risks and hazards are comparatively vague in connection with the hindsight latent factors and other clear conditions. On the other hand, the Step Change in the process of safety management is also incorporated for sufficient and effective safety indicators. The factors need to be accessed and connected with the safety management system, which is in charge of the process. At the same time, such factors need to be specific, measurable and realistic which can lead to control actions.
Ferson has used a process of tri- chotomy indicators, which needs to be at par with the process indicators of the industry. There are certain examples of the prominent indicators at the three levels. In the intermediate level, the system indicators are responsible for measuring the measuring the efforts put by the system. Again, the operational indicators are measured at the grass- root level for the strong attainments of the organization. The indicators are used for calculating the gradual progress within the company and compare the same with other companies in the market. At this point of comparison, standard benchmark is created. The process of seeking for the process safety indicators begin with the selection of the fatal accident scenarios such as top- 15 or top- 20 prominent accident scenarios chosen by the process and plant managers and the operators. The metaphors, models and theories, which were created in different industries at different phases of time due to various reasons, are responsible for explaining variety of knowledge to draw conclusion (Forouzanfar). The literature review done on this topic has focused on the particular scenario of accepting the hurdles in process indicator relation.
The series of definition has managed to shed light on the similarity of various definitions provided in the professional and scientific literature. As per the professional literature, it is found that the indicators carry out mostly descriptive function. Goff mentioned that the process of decision- making is widely described and which consists of both scope and efficiency of the production. It is reflected in terms of maintenance and turn- around as per the quality of the outsourced business and the particular impact of laws and policies. It must be observed that the safety theories, metaphors and models should form the basis of the search indicators. A clear distinction between the academic and professional literature, which is more practical, is based on the function of safety indicators. In order to assure the same, basic empirical research is an important function. However, there lies the challenge of describing the indicators for offering knowledge into the category of barriers and the relevant scenario of development (Forouzanfar). The selection of the indicators is dependent on the input for HAZOP kind of session in order to identify the barriers in the current scenario, which will include management actions and supporting systems related to the same.
By summing up it can be stated that the process safety indicators are able to throw light on the safety of either the process or the company (Zhao). The management indicators of the system indentify if suitable conditions are present for attaining the required goals and objectives of the company. The definitions, which are discussed in the literature review show close similarity with the safety models and metaphors by clearly indicating towards the repetitive disturbances, barriers, primary causes and the precursors of the loss due to repression. For instance, both the Swiss cheese and Bowtie metaphor is aimed at the management barriers of the process or the latent factors. These can be considered as additional tools for the identification of the changes in risk assessment along with their association with the efficiency of safety management at the workplace (Hanson). Secondary to the difference between leading and lagging, other process indicators include the categories of factors, which are mentioned in the professional literature. The outcome of the indicators has carried the evidence that it should not stand alone. The selection of the indicators should be carried out in such manner that it is relevant to the purpose served by the organization. In the course of this report, different categories of definitions are provided with clear demarcation of between the scientific and professional literature. As the time period of eight- nine years is mentioned, it is not a very long duration and therefore it is not relevant to the topic of process safety indicators. In order to stress more on the topic, the ANSI and API introduced their four- level pyramid. The regulations of the future days, such as Seveso legislation updates, will probably permit the process of safety indicators to remain under the banner. However, there is still more experiment needed with the safety indicators and the indicators of management and organization (Jasanoff).
The paper has explained about the issues related to quantification in the management and organizational process for a number of times. Moreover, the contents of the scientific literature and the process indicators have a striking resemblance. The prominent indicators in the Step Change process of Safety of the British Oil and Gas Industry are the outcome of the broad analysis of the contemporary practices in the same industry along with the barriers, results and scenarios. The most common ones are the safety indicators, which are linked with the categories of barriers, accidental scenarios and the impact of decision- making process. In the flow of danger model and theory, one among the latent factors of the process is related to the effect of decision- making and issue that might arise between safety of the company and its objectives. Ultimately, the result indicators are the substitute for performance, which was attained as a prior set goal of occupational and process safety indicators (Khan and Seyed).
The literature review has effectively drawn a distinctive line between occupational and process safety. According to Cefic, the European Chemical Industry Council, the Guidance on Process Safety Performance Indicators is regarded as standard purpose for not focusing on the prominent indicators. Difference among various levels of the process is not explained clearly and the new pyramid was suppressed due to different legal norms and theoretical arguments. It was found by Li that the definitions included in the professional literature were closer to the legal requirements more than practical application and the efficiency of process safety management. On the other hand, the lagging safety process indicators provide insight on the result of the activities where the prominent indicators identify a current situation, which could influence further outcome. A clear and elaborative distinction was made between leading and lagging safety process indicators of management (Kurian).
The emergence of risk events
In order to fulfill the quantification requirement, the activities, incidents and interventions, which are dominant in the industry, are dependent on the standard of safety measurements in an organization. In this respect, three different categories of prominent indicators are given below-
Compliance
Performance improvement
Learning organization (Kuzmanovi?)
As a result, it is difficult to opine about a black swan if such an event does not occur in reality. In this case, it can be said that the accident is an outcome of different accidents and conditions, which is a surprise for those indulged in the management of those activities. The third kind of black swans are included in the events, which will take place irrespective of the probability of their negligible judgment. This part of the discussion can be well connected with the common- cause variation and special- cause variation in the quality category. Li countered that in the Macondo case, the combination include other steps which are given below-
Erroneous evaluation of the pressure test outcome
Failure in fluid penetration from the wall although it was portrayed in a different way in the log
Diverter system did not function properly in diverting the gas
There was problem in sealing the well in the Blow Out Preventer due to the cutting valve (Yeboah)
From the above points, it can be stated that the accident is a black swan for them. Therefore, it can be analyzed that there is a comparatively high probability of occurrence of such incidents. It can be assumed that a risk analysis was conducted at certain point of time. This is because there is a strong knowledge base from where correct predictions are possible. However, if there is still occurrence of the event, then it must have gone unforeseen. It is known to everyone that there are several case scenarios where the amount of population will decrease certain diseases in the coming days and the number of people that will die in traffic (Meier). Another instance is that of underwater volcano eruption which took place in the Atlantic Sea and resulted in tsunami affecting the area of Norway. However, the management involved in the installation process might ignore the scenario of the possible occurrence of a significant event by different arguments.
In association with proper storms, the difference in the phenomenon is referred to the Black Swan as an extreme event in comparison to an individual’s belief and knowledge. The three definitions are given below based on main types of Black Swan events-
Events which were not known to the scientific environment
Events which were unknown to the list of risk assessors
Events which had the least possibility of occurrence (Wang)
In that case, the Black Swans can be easily ignored, as there is a strong knowledge base. When the number of fatalities is considered from the 1970s to the present day, there is steady decline in the figures although there has been increase in traffic. The probabilities were referred to as frequentist probabilities as it characterized the difference in the phenomenon to the degree of certainty (Moyer). However, there is still scope of challenging this view. This is because installations are set as per the strength of the requirement to cope up with the extreme waves but there is always limitation. Therefore, it is important to describe the perspectives carefully while discussing about the activities of Black Swan. By travelling back in time to few years, terrorism was not considered as an important factor in the variation process therefore, there is a scope of the occurrence of black swan depending on the depth of the phenomenon. If a better risk analysis is conducted then the situation might come closer to storm. Again, a more perfect risk analysis could have led to perfect identification of the phenomenon. In this case, if macro perspective is considered, then a proper solution could evolve. If the accident is assumed then irrespective of the prior status, individuals will make a predictable understanding about the fact. It can be mentioned that the variance of phenomenon cannot be described with such precision (Rabar).
If the entire oil industry is considered in this respect, then the metaphor of Black Swan will gain a lot more momentum in discussing about risk analysis. The reason behind this is that it lies outside the genre of regular expectations because there was no convincing part found in the past possibilities. As there is presence of risk, therefore it is important to depend on judgments. The judgments are mostly based on knowledge along with uncertainties and belief. Suter II stated that if thoughts can be constructed then there will be negative probability of event judgment. The variation is still not known widely therefore, the phenomenon needs to be clearly understood. By focusing on the Macondo case, based on the knowledge variation of the phenomenon, there was probability of the event to occur in the coming year. In that case, the barriers worked effectively to prevent extreme after effect (Villa).
Business organizations involved in oil and energy sector are finding in challenging to make exact predications of risks and their intensity. They are beyond the grip of legal systems in world. The business organizations consider all significant accidents as risks to the businesses and form strategies to prevent them or at least abate them. These organizations also measure the variation of the levels of risks over a specific span of time. The business Organizations attempt to make accurate predictions so that they can take actions to tackle these risks in maximum situations. These predications seek to reduce the losses Organizations suffer due to accidents and risks. The black swans have three characteristics. The first attribute of a black swan events are unexpected and out of the realm of knowledge of the business they are effecting. The second characteristic of black swan events is that they have devastating effect on the Organizations. The business Organizations generally gain knowledge about management of such events and take steps to control them better than past encounters.
Figure 2: Timeline showing attributes of Black Swan
Source: (Villa)
The figure above shows that business Organizations use the experience gained to tackle emergency situations. However, even their experiences and knowledge about risk management they gain fail them in counteracting future and unpredictable dangers. There is no framework which business Organizations can use in counteracting risks especially, the unknown and fast changing ones. Such newly emerging risks cannot be counteracted due to lack of effectiveness of present models on them. The management bodies of these Organizations point out that the knowledge about tackling these risks are not limited with any single individual employee or department which has complete knowledge about risks and the multifarious effects. The business Organizations today in reality fail to predict the risks considering the present organizational setups and management frameworks.
The gap in research:
The extensive studies on project risk and the management methods incorporate tools like Delphi processes, brainstorming and focus groups making them effective. The business Organizations in spite of these factors use on-linear procedures to make their risks. However, sheer dynamic nature of the risks renders the previous risk management models inefficient or less efficient. These natural risks are typically significant when it comes to projects related to mining or construction since these projects are dependent on natural environments. The management of the companies involved in mining and construction industries today use models like P-centre models. They take into account factors like risk value, coverage population and several other factors.
Definition:
Schultz and Libman (2015) define a disaster as a catastrophic and rampant damage which causes severe disruption in the society. The damage causes immense losses in terms of money and resources, finding it difficult to cope with the loss. The disaster management bodies prepare risk management framework for helping the victims of the disasters in the event of a natural disaster. The risk for a particular disaster can be calculated by multiplying the risks. The objective is to opt for appropriate locations like liable arrangements network to support the demand points. Reaction and recovering from disaster are sufficient to recover from a disaster effectively. The disaster management bodies have to make disaster management or risk management strategies to deal with the disaster. Disaster management can be divided into four steps namely, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Disaster management encompasses conditions before the disasters strike, if they can be predicated like cyclone, during the disaster and after the disaster.
Highlighting the main concepts:
The bodies dealing with disaster management consider the location of resources and relief facilities while making disaster relief strategies. The success of the disaster management bodies depend on these factors. The rescuers try to locate and make available resources like food and medicine to the people affected while rescuing them. The experts involved in recovering people caught in natural risks follow linear models of disaster management. Mitigation seeks to lessen the impact of natural calamities on the society. The bodies like government agencies involved take into consideration sustainable management policies, planning and strategy formation at all levels. They integrate capital resources, manpower, knowledge and technology. They not only work towards rescuing people from the calamities but also minimize the damage the calamity can cause in the future. The process of recovery starts right after the disaster happens and can last for months and years, especially in case calamities like earthquakes. The rescuing bodies take into different types of risks that may accompany or follow the calamity like financial risks, shortage of basic necessities and outbreak of diseases. Their success in dealing with the natural calamities depends on their capability of predicting the intensities of these secondary risks following the actual risks. Akter and Samuel Fosso mention that mitigation of natural calamities encompasses reducing the chances of occurrences and severity of the calamities. Post disaster management consists of taking steps to recover from the impact of the calamity and establishment of normalcy once again. The responses to natural disaster consist of taking steps to prevent any further suffering, financial risks and losses or a combination of both these categories of risks.
Preparedness:
Preparation to mitigate or at least recover from the disasters consists of equipping the people affected with resources like food and medicines. The aim of the disaster rescue is to improve the quality of life of the people affected and decrease their suffering. Timely rescue from disasters would also lead to decrease in financial losses and other types of losses. There are three strategic goals which are recognized in the disaster management. The first goal is strengthen and develop the institutions like governments and rescue management systems. This goal also encompasses development of community as a whole to enable better disaster management. The aim of this step is to make disaster management more sustainable by enabling rescue of more people using the available resources. This stage also aims to create self-dependence among the community members so that they are able to deal with the disaster more effectively in the future. The World Conference on Disaster Reduction which was held in Japan emphasized on risk management approach. The systematic inclusion of risk mitigation and risk reduction approaches has become important parts of risk management framework. The disaster management bodies today not only stresses on formation of a framework and creating preparedness among the communities struck by the disaster. They help the victims of the disasters to recover from the disasters by framing and implementing several recovery programs.
Fault Tress analysis:
The fault tress is a model which supports disaster management framework which disaster management bodies can use to handle disasters. The figure has two axes, the amount of resources allocated towards management of a particular disaster is shown on the Y axis and the time is shown on the Y axis. The time is divided into three parts, occurring of the disaster, supply of resources is initiated to rescue the effected and disaster management begins and the supply flow ends after successful disaster recovery.
Figure 3: Fault Tree Diagram
Sources: (Schultz and Libman)
The fault tree diagram shown above takes into account three constituents namely, threats which the disaster would usher, vulnerability or rate to which a particular community can be affected by the calamity and the consequences of the calamity. For example, the advanced countries like Australia and the United States of America have advanced weather reporting and alerting technology. These countries are technologically advanced and are capable of mobilizing relief promptly. The central governments, state governments, the local governments, the rescue bodies like the United Nations and the disaster management machinery in these countries start the rescue operations by relocating the people in safe locations when a predication of an approaching natural calamity. Hence, when the natural calamity actually strikes, the losses are comparatively less. The poor countries cannot mobilize this huge resource or initiate rescue operations. Thus, when the natural calamity actually strikes, there results death and suffering of far more people compared to advanced countries. Again, these poor countries due to their low level of economic development and technological advancements, fail to take appropriate steps to prevent further losses after the calamities, like breakout of epidemics. Thus, this shows that the level of capability of a particular country depends on the availability of resources and the capability of the country to mobilize the resources available.
RIFs from frameworks reviewed:
The RIFs frameworks reviewed and analyzed show several defects both in terms of human resources management and technological aspects. The RIFs in this case were influenced by the RIFs of the Organizations leading the relief operations and were thus faulty. The operations faced several problems like communication problems due to technological lacking in the information and communication software used. The instruments and machinery used in the relief framework also suffered from several short coming which in turn influenced the effectiveness of the relief work. These defects have devastating influences on the relief missions and often limit their effectiveness or even lead to their collapse. Similarly defects in the staff participating the natural disaster management like lack of training and knowledge about the local conditions lead to failure of the relief functions. The poor relief management capabilities among the different Organizations like small NGOs are often reflected in the rescue operations which they undertake.
Public relationship or PR plays a very important role in the success and effectiveness of the rescue operations. The Organizations managing rescue operations train their employees and establish strong communication with the stakeholders. The stakeholders in this case consist of governments, the rescue management and training institutes, the Organizations which finance the rescue operations, the bodies which provide with relief resources like medicines and food packets and the community as a whole.
If one further sees at the APR and PR , the key problems can be identified easily. The key problem includes the likes of conventional QRA that lacks the details to reflect the risk involved in the oil and gas industry on the basis of the different kinds of activities that are generally carried out in the industry. For the following purpose, the report has classified the different types of factors that influencing technical or human condition or the performance into the different types of groups. Because of this the report has selected to look further at the RIF’s that are identified in the reviewed methods and the process by which they are linked to derive risk level. The concentration of the organization over the different types of technical systems, it may seem reasonable to assume that the QRA’s are more suitable for modeling ACR. This refers that none of the different types of the frameworks can be put into use directly to model ACR, APR and PR.1. Apart from this in most of the cases temporary barrier systems are introduced to replace the makeshift barrier system that is generally not available regularly. The technical system of the RIF’s cover the aspects that are related to the design of the different kinds of machineries and the systems that are used in the industry and also the different kinds of complexity that are involved in the organization. The weather conditions can affect both the individuals and the technical conditions in general. Task Characteristics RIF’s: The different types of the RIF’s covers different types of aspects that are related to the activity itself, this includes the likes of the methodology needed to carry out the work or the task. Environment RIF’s: The following group of RIF’s covers the external environmental factors that include the likes of the weather conditions. The following group of RIF’s is also detailed discussed in the BORA framework. The group is described in detail in the BORA framework.
Figure 4: Machine Model
Source:
Operational barriers like supervision and leak test may fail because of omission or failure of execution. Operational Management like that of RIF’s, weather, restricted area or the restricted time. In spite of this, it does not mean that that the influence of indirect organizational factors is not considered in the risk picture since they are implicit in the baseline risk level of the plant. Apart from this the short time lag constricts the resources being available to capture the most remote type of organizational levels. The ACR is derived by updating failure rates, frequencies of hazard rates, updating the failure rates and many more as such. In the above figure, the RIF’s are rather stable for longer periods, unless major kind of organizational change takes place. APR may also increase if the operators fail to recognize the working constraints. After the completion of the different tasks, the management must focus on the average performance of the technical system to whether relevant barrier systems are actually working or not. Indirect organization RIF’s are not included for the activity-related risk analysis, which is a support to operational planning decisions. These kinds of decisions generally have a short time lag in between taking the decision on an event and implementing the decision into an action. The management may create some temporary barriers that act as a compensatory measure for out of the service physical barriers. The APR generally increases as a result of human errors.
Relevant RIF’s and ACR
There are many researchers who propose to use a combination of event trees and fault trees to model site specific average risk, with a particular focus on the technical failures of the system, especially the barrier systems. The assumption that generally instructs the organizational RIF’s is mostly stable before and after the completion of the activities. The focus of the ACR can be on the change of the technical parameters in the different models. It implies that the lack of the detection system, selection of wrong kind of detection system and the failure of the implemented detection system can lead to the increase of the detection system. The increase in the ACR will also add to the exposure of unnecessary people into the site-specific average risk via the influence on the frequency and will lead to the consequence of major accident. However for the specific activities the effect is generally taken directly into the account and there is no such need to include the operational management RIF’s in the model explicitly.
The parameters are generally illustrated together with the necessary deviations and by which process the following occurs. Secondly the aim of the management of the oil and gas industries. This involves planning direct contribution to technical failures and also human failures. The main suggestion in the report is to control APR through the monitoring of the different safety and critical parameters, which are the factors that have direct and significant effects on the occurrence or the different hazardous impact that are the consequence of the different forms of the hazardous events.
Figure 5: Factors Influencing Managers Behavior
Source:
The supervisor fails to carry out the specified checks to detect the different kinds of the error. Active errors generally possess a direct impact on the safety because of the immediacy of the different kinds of the adverse impacts. Risk_OMT generally differentiates failure of implementation and execution with that of failure of omission. The process of analyzing the APR, conditions of the technical barrier systems are highly relevant, but the RIF’s are there which has a substantial influence on the performance and the consideration. The different kinds of the human failures can lead to the failure of the barrier failures, temporary barrier failures, operational barrier failures, action failures and also different kinds of work constraint failures. On the other hand Recovery Errors refers to the failure of the different kinds of organizational failures or operational failures. There are many kinds of operational barriers. Some of them are self check, supervision, 3rd party control and many more as such which are established to reveal different kinds latent errors. The failure of omission generally describes inadequate or insufficient functionality of the works. However the most important matter is the detection of the conditions of the relevant technical barrier systems to see if the following are properly functioning are not or if they are degraded or failed in nature. The failure of execution covers violations and different kinds of mistakes that are committed by people. They ar5e also called as the lapses or slips by the people.
Most of the reviewed frameworks that have been discussed in this particular report are as a result of the RIF structure on the human performance. The more attention is generally directed to performance of the operators who are responsible to detect the status of the different kinds of the technical barriers, temporary barriers, carry out operational barriers functions, perform the actions and also recognize the following kinds of working constraints. The maintenance work may on the other hand leave different kinds of incorrectly fitted flanges or bolts that can lead to a leak and recovery errors. The classification clarifies about the process of performing the activities of the human action and how they fail generally. Latent errors are described as the ones that are left by or a wrongly performed human activity. Machine divides human errors into different kinds of the active errors, latent errors and also recovery errors.
Figure 6: Safety Critical Parameters to APR
Source:
A detailed analysis must be conducted for different types of activities. The propagation can be carried out using a various kinds of software. The users can use software like HUGIN or Netica, RISK_OMT. It also helps the users to ensure a speedy evaluation to create an interest in order to continue to explore further. It is important to decide the levels of the RIF structure. to ensure the safety and security of the critical parameters and it is also believed to be a good candidate for the modeling of APR. The researchers of the industry generally use the single level structure of the organization that includes the likes of the different types of the factors from ORIM, BORA, RISK_OMT, safety management system and management. This is generally recommended by I-Risk. It also provides key areas for concern while carrying out casual analysis. The data driven approach that has been suggested by ORIM needs a big historical data about different kinds of specific activities and the following is only feasible when the activities and the corresponding causes are collected in a proper way.
The sources of RIF’s are generally expected to be more site specific and activity specific. It facilitates the assignment process for the different tasks that generally has a very short period of time. The evaluation requires a fast rating of the RIF’s while doing different types of short planning, so audit as suggested by I-Risk and the review method and survey used by BORA are not well suited. The following event also considers interactions between the RIF’s. The following consideration of the RIF’s is taken into account based on the conditional probability table. The assignment of the conditional probability table is much more challenging in nature at the activity level. The following event also ensures the use of the indicators is one of the main benefits of the following program. This includes;
The use of professional judgment to find out the relative importance of RIF’s that is used in BORA. It is the simplest method but it is restricted in competiveness. The HCL hybrid process may apply because only a few of the different input parameters needs to be assigned. There are many of those including, BORA, x-factor, BORA, RISK_OMT and many more as such. The following parameters generally influence the probability of the Human Failures.
On the other hand expert evaluation is a feasible way to rate RIF’s of the organization is naturally stable and that of the direct contributors to the different mistakes that are committed by the persons in general.
Figure 7: Relevant RIF’s and PR
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The analysis has been done in a thorough and revised manner in this particular report. The following provides a clear picture of the different similarities and the differences, between the frameworks. There is no single theories and models that provides all the different answers to modeling of all the three aspects of the risks. These are classified into different types of the operational management RIF’s that has an impact on the supporting functions of the organization. The RIF’s of the operational management is very much essential to the performance of the planning, which is critical to the identification of the different types of communication that is undertaken to evaluate the risks. These kinds of RIF’s are generally influenced by the use of the competence, documentation, planning, communication, time pressure and many more as such. The absence of any clear definition of the planning makes the people incapable of forecasting the different types of the decisions.
The planning of the event includes the likes of selecting the different types of elements at a much earlier time than expected. This includes; time, location and the allocation of the resources for each activity. The risk always has an impact on the choice of the methodology that will be undertaken to control the particular types of the risks in the Oil and Gas Industry. It also helps to identify the activity performance risk and the period risks along with the different kinds of the limitations. The above table clearly highlights as well as summarizes the implications from the reviewed frameworks following the same structure as shown in the earlier figure. One particular conclusion from the frameworks is the implications from the reviewed frameworks are mostly aiming at an updated QRA that are established for the different design phase in the beginning. PR on the other hand considers all the different kinds of activities for the particular period to ensure the avoidance of possible communication that generally leads to major accidents. The same is followed in APR Modeling.
This will generally be the next source of research and will focus on the quantification of the activity performances risk and the period risks through the use of the operational risk indicators. The risk influencing factors and the corresponding structures from the different kinds of reviewed frameworks are generally summarized in the listed tables. While the performance of APR Analysis by the management of the oil and gas industries is needed to detect the human failure or the mistakes or crisis that forces the people to make such failures. Most of the reviewed frameworks that have been discussed in this particular report are as a result of the RIF’s structure on the human performance. The more attention is generally directed to performance of the operators who are responsible to detect the status of the different kinds of the technical barriers, temporary barriers, carry out operational barriers functions, perform the actions and also recognize the following kinds of working constraints. The maintenance work may on the other hand leave different kinds of incorrectly fitted flanges or bolts that can lead to a leak and recovery errors. The classification clarifies about the process of performing the activities of the human action and how they fail generally. Latent errors are described as the ones that are left by or a wrongly performed human activity. Machine divides human errors into different kinds of the active errors, latent errors and also recovery errors. The main types of the different RIF are to activity performance and the Human performance that is utmost necessary for the estimate of the different kinds of important factors of the organization. The process by which QRA currently performs is quite strange to the information of the activity related risk, triggers, hazards, proactive barriers and many more as such. The concentration on the technical conditions of the different kinds of systems, RIF’s are generally not necessary explicitly modeled in the design of ACR. The key task of the following in this section is accordingly identification of the different interactions.
Risk Modeling
Some of the models of risk modeling is more or less same in nature. A set of different organizational factors includes the likes of;
A set of different modeling techniques
A link to the system risk model
A set of different measurement methods
The review focuses on the different aspects of the these models, from both a quantitative and qualitative point of view, 1977; Implications for each of the activities related risk analysis ar4e given in the coming chapter.
The subjective form of the objectives has been broken into a number of different sub objectives;
The changes in the risk that happens day to day are generally driven by means of the review focuses on the different aspects of the these models, from both a quantitative and qualitative point of view, 1977; Implications for each of the activities related risk analysis ar4e given in the coming chapter.
There are lots of changes in the risk that happens each and every day and are generally implying that an activity based risk analysis rather than a system based analysis is required for the analysis. The selected models are discussed and compared thoroughly in the following report. The organizational and Human factors are provided utmost important to the discussion and analysis of the different models that have been described here.
Social and Technical Analysis is given most importance in the following report to provide a much more detailed analysis.
BORA referred to as the barrier and Organizational Risk Analysis have received the most attention over the last few years.
Terminology of Risk Influence Modeling
Risk Influence methodology was developed to help stakeholders concentrate on identification and analysis of soft factors. The following has gained popularity just because of the inability of the traditional QRA to incorporate different kinds of organizational factors very well into the different kinds of models. The most important aspect of the operation is that the technical systems represents a baseline risk level, while the experience that is gained by the management of the petroleum industries while conducting the different kinds of the petroleum activities are determinants of the risk that occurs in such activities. These types of risks also prove that risks are generally the same and occur continuously during the conduction of the different activities. The methodology of the following report enables the reflecting effects of the different soft factors on the performance of the different kinds of technical systems and the different kinds of human actions. There are different kinds of models including MACHINE, SAM, x-factor Model and many more as such.
Risk Influence Analysis methodology generally focus on the identification and the modeling of risk influencing factors, as a means of efficiently identifying the different kinds of risk reduction measures. This also ensures that the set of actions can be taken easily to transform the change of the state of RIF’s in turn to reduce the risk level of the organization that produces the different kinds of the petroleum, oil and gas products. Operational Planning decisions are the decisions that are generally made during the planning and preparation for the implementation and the execution of the different activities that are totally opposed to the decisions made during the period of the proper implementation of the safety measures or the risk procedures.
Figure 8: Time Series of Reviewed Risk Influence Models
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The SoTeRiA framework is constructed at a high level of abstraction. It concentrates on the main constructs that needs to be captured to correctly reflect the organizational influence in the different models of system risk. This is completed through the involvement of the PSF’s of individual levels, to the different unit process models. Some of the most common types of example include the likes of the proportion of the people involved in the performance of the event and the number of events that were carried out in the last part of the year and the time needed for the preparation and application of the event. The process starts with the initiation, prioritizing, planning, proper scheduling, return to a normal line up and last but not the least is the documentation. The manager who is in charge of the management of the following site have a solid influence on the training department and the quality assurance department to ensure the success of the organization that deals in the Oil and Gas Industry. The management of the organization ensures that the training of the employees are done or conducted according to the guidelines of the organization or the conduction of the management. This helps the organization to ensure that the new employees are trained properly and are already accustomed to the different types of the safety measures and regulations that are followed in the particular organization dealing with the different types of activities followed in the organization. Technically PR can be the baseline risk/site specific average risk if one considers a period of one year for a whole plant producing or refining oil and gas. However the following is not the intention of the organization. A condition refers to the relative stable property of the different kinds of the system or the environment in which the system operates. The following is referred to as one of the4 most inevitable challenges. The probability of the following is interpreted as a particular kind of objective to show the likelihood of the particular scenario happening. BORA integrates operational, human, technical and other organizational factors into the performance of the different kinds of safety barriers that are introduced to prevent the hydrocarbon releases in the environment. There are eight different kinds of generic delivery systems that are defined as;
Availability of Personnel
Commitment and Motivation to carry out the work safely
Internal communication and the coordination and competence ability of the different personnel
Plans and Procedures
Resolution of conflicting pressures and the demands that are antagonistic to safety of the different individuals.
Delivery of correct spares for repair
Competence of Personnel
Interface of Plants
The oil producing and refining organizations is mostly described by the consideration of the different series of factors or are based on the model that have an impact on the performance of different types of human errors or the system or the component failures.
Process of Rating
The Rating of RIF’s is one of the most important considerations for the proper and effective implementation of the different types of the safety process followed in the industry. The following process must be reflected in the analysis which is done to capture both the short term and long term effect of the operational planning decisions. THERP, CREAM, SLIM-MAUD and HRA database. Risk_OMT is an extension of the BORA framework that specifically focus on the maintenance work on process equipment, on off-shore petroleum installations. The RIF’s are divided into five different types of categories namely personal characteristics, task characteristics of the personal system, administrative control and different types of organizational factors or philosophy that deals with the operation of the different types of industries that deals with oil and Gas industries. This seems to be reasonable to say as because the second level RIF’s are mostly reasonable in nature and uses the different kinds of system to analyze the different types of the goals of the organization. The interface models used in the organization are mainly described as updating the basic events in the FT, safety culture, Human System Interface, Resource and many more as such. In the different kinds of reviewed models, RIF’s are constructed in an influence diagram or a Bayesian network diagram. This kind of modeling techniques that illustrates the casual relationships among the risk factors also has a significant impact on the risk level. The main description of the following has quite clear benefits and the worker is considered to be an important factor in the implementation and the execution of the different kinds of activities. The Risk_OMT has a different structure that helps to model the different scores of the human reliability analysis that is also termed as the performance shaping factor or the performance influencing factor.
It is notable that the Risk_OMT has a different structure to model scores of RIF’s as a number of Nodes in BN. Risk influencing factors that have an impact on the Human performance and human error probability in human reliability analysis are generally termed as the performance shaping factors or the factors that influence the performance of the business. The following is followed by a summary of different types of key requirements that are needed to place on the analysis methods. There are many who generally adapt many to many relationships. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams are generally differentiated in some literature, with the latter being used when the decision nodes and the utility nodes that is included in the following kind of network. Two of the most key points of the network are as follows;
What is propagated through the use of the RIF Structure?
What is the relationship between Aggregated RIF’s and Risk?
The overall impact of the different delivery systems on a technical parameter is just the sum of a product, to structure the direct and indirect influence on the human and the physical system performance of the different risk structures and rules. The detailed RIF’s from the reviewed models are shown separately and clearly in the different tables. The benefits of AHP come from the fact that the consistency of the different judgments can be measured properly and effectively. The most important types of the Risk Influencing Factors are provided with classification schemes and hierarchical structure that has been indicated in the following.
Model Review
The first part of the review focus on the qualitative aspects of the different models that including what are the Risk Influencing Factors, the levels of the Risk Influencing Factors and also including the source and knowledge of RIF’s, link to risk models and the modeling technique. The x factor model suggests using either expert judgment or a data driven approach. The following is done to address the different types of low value or two or more Risk Influencing Factors that makes the negative influence of HCL Hybrids much stronger in nature. This will start by discussing the different types of the activity related risks of the organization. The risks are identified according to the different classification and maintenance of the organizational goals of safety and security. The report will now discuss the qualitative and the quantitative aspects of the organization.
Quantitative Aspects
The quantitative elements that are contained in the different frameworks are reviewed and summarized in the following report. The examples of analyzed objects can be taken into account automatically. One risk identification factors is identified by one or several risk identification factors. The line of the research from BORA, ORIM, to RISK_OMT is to focus on the oil and gas industry in which increased engagement has been into impact of the different kind of Human Factors as the cause of the major accidents that takes place in the oil and Gas industries. the thing that is considered is actually a path that influences the component failure rates and the human mistakes that leads to the dangerous mistakes.
The probabilities are generally subjective probabilities that express uncertainties. This implies that the organization propagates uncertainty regarding the occurrence of different kind of basic events. Instead of the true likelihood of the occurrence of the events. I-Risk uses the IRMA (Integrated Risk Management Audit) method, the following types of the events that occur accordingly. The most important types of the Risk Weights every delivery system according to the relative importance for each of the different technical parameters that are based on the expert judgment. The following review covers the rating process, weighting process and the different kinds of propagation method. In ORIM, a regression based technique is generally utilized to model the relationship between leak frequency and the other kinds of various factors. This includes the likes of In Machine, SAM, x-factor and HCL frameworks. The risk is generally not defined in a proper sense of manner. The second part of the following review covers all the rating process, weighting process and also the propagation method of the organization. In MACHINE, SAM, x-factor and HCL frameworks risk is not defined properly. In addition to this the level 2 Risk Identification Factors are capable to make an impact on the basic events through the level 1 RIF’s only. Models like that of Markov model are used to estimate the former states, and the number of contributions to the leaks of factor. WPAM has the tendency to utilize the predefined sets of organizational factors that are developed for the organizations like that of Nuclear Regulatory Commission. In comparison to ACR, which is long-term oriented, APR has most probably increased risk level, which will vanish when the activity has been completed. The impact of the organizational factors in most cases pass through the layers of the original functions that are conducted by the different types of the front-line-professional.
It is not a surprise that all the different identified set of factors that exist between the reviewed models is rather different, since the different classification schemes and sources are totally different in nature. The risk totally quantifies the impact of the SMS of a plant on the risk through the delivery systems with which the controls are supplied and the resources are used to primary business functions. The x-factor model establishes the fact that both the structural and behavioral aspects of an organization and the modeling technique. Most of the modern frameworks use the variations of BN. For example, a new pump can help increase the frequency of the leak. BARS are also considered by using a number of different checklists, structured interviews and surveys.
Period Risk
Period Risk is much more same as that of APR, except that the following task takes into consideration all the different activities that takes place during a particular period at the plant.
Link to Risk Models
All the different kinds of the risk frameworks has the aims to incorporate different kinds of indirect organizational influence into QRA by the modification of different inputs to single events or a set of events that have their presence in the event trees.
Requirements needed to analyze methods for Activity-Related Risk Analysis
Based on the different kinds of the descriptions of the information that are required to activity related decision making, it will be easy for the readers of the following report to summarize the key requirements of the following table. This also includes the likes of the quality of procedures, operator training and many more as such. Among them, three of them are quite directly concerned quite directly with the personnel, two of them with hardware and three of them with how the organization and the management work. There are no such generic Risk Identification Factors that is believed to have a generic influence on the framework, failure rate, duration of repair and other different such similar factors of the organization. The Phoenix Model is a qualitative Analysis Framework that has PIF’s as the bottom layer to influence the Performance of the Human Model, MACHINE, BORA, RISK_OMT, Phoe-nix, component/physical system failure rate. Amongst them BORA and RISK_OMT are used for providing expert judgment to find out the relative importance of RIF’s and then again normalize them to the weights to sum up to one. The main overall influence of delivery systems on a technical risk parameter. This are generally divided into three parameters. Some of the frameworks have a potential for proper quantification, but they are mostly at an abstract level yet. The detailed processes of propagation of the different kinds of models are shown in the different types of the models used in the following report.
In ORIM the risk is said to be the complete set of scenarios, the likelihood and the consequences of each of the different scenarios. Interaction between the two RIF’s is generally considered in ORIM in terms of consideration. It is for this very reason MACHINE describes that it is best to use SUCCESS Likelihood Index Method in the weighting process. The RISK_OMT model also examines the eight different scenarios along with the other kind of activities that are related to them. Analytic Hierarchy Process is generally adapted in WPAM by asking the experts to rate the OF’s two at a time which helps in the evaluation of their importance.
Levels of RIF Structure
The organizational model, human reliability model and risk model constitutes the major pillars of the following frameworks. There are typically three different approaches proposed to assign the scores of Risk Identification Factors in the different related frameworks. This includes the use of a set of indicators, human mistakes, sabotages and many other created accidents. The HCL Model is described in an application part of the offshore risk analysis. Operational Management factors consist of the formulation for the different front line officials. The Risk Identification Factors are assumed to be known and the effects are generally propagated into a true likelihood of the basic event or events. The effects can also be propagated for the MCS’s. The reason for the omission is based on historical information. Bayesian Networks are generally used in the field of Risk Analysis for different kinds of reasoning under the uncertainty that is based on the probabilistic inference technique.
Qualitative Aspects
The following table summarizes a set of qualitative aspects of the different models that have been reviewed.MACHINE classifies RIFs into error-inducing factors that lead to human errors and human induced hardware failures, and policy deficiencies that cause the inducing factors.2. For example, if two or more RIFs are assumed to interact and worse than average, the score of ONE of them is reduced one category (It is a reflection of influences of the analyzed activity on the baseline risk level of the plant or the site-specific average risk according to the classification scheme proposed by Yang and Haugen (2015). ACR is introduced to separate out the effect on the technical condition of the plant as a result of performing the activity.2. The underlying perception of RIFs is different from other frameworks. Interaction between RIFsInteraction effects among RIFs means that a RIF will have a different effect on the basic event, depending on the status of another RIF. Hence, the RIFs are treated as stochastic variables and the scores are observations of those true values.In ORIM, BORA, WPAM, the RIF is assumed to be known without uncertainty. In RISK_OMT, RIFs are still considered theoretical constructs that influence the risk. And these interactive effects increase the ”difficulty of identifying and quantifying causal links between a multitude of potential causal agents and specific observed effects”. Due to the possible dependencies between concurrent activities, PR associated with these activities will not necessarily be the sum of APRs of the activities. Propagation method after the scoring and weighting process of the RIFs, the scores and weights are aggregated in order to reflect the total effect of all RIFs on the analyzed object. BORA deals with interaction in a simple way.RISK_OMT introduces interaction effect factor and summed the interaction effects for one sub set of interactions to the original weighted sum to get a conservative result. Activity consequence risk (ACR).Activity consequence risk is the effect that performing an activity will have on the risk level for the plant after the activity has been completed (Yang and Haugen, 2016).ORIM has been developed with focus on only one specific risk parameter – leak frequency., from. Operational, emergency operations, inspection and testing, maintenance, and modifications). WPAM and x-factor are developed from nuclear industry where impact of human errors on system risk have been widely recognized. Inadequate actions that may cause failure. The PIFs are developed from several HRA theoretical sources.Instrumentation including piping, pipeline, flange/joint, valve, other) to the leak frequency (RISK, WPAM) and PSFs from human reliability analysis (HRA) methods (skills, motivations, and expectations) and external PSFs that strongly relate to organization. WPAM is special in that it modifies the frequency of minimum cut sets to include organizational dependencies among PSA parameters. The readers are referred for detailed introduction. Next, we discuss these requirements in relation to the reviewed frameworks to evaluate their applicability to model the activity-related risk. Therefore, these frameworks are not considered in this section.Whether or not the prescribed activity is carried out) and failure of execution (i. The RIFs are selected from the BORA project, but the RIFs can be linked either to another RIF, or to a basic event in the fault tree. For human error prob-ability, PSFs are divided into two categories: Internal PSFs, BORA or a set of events. The result is an average of the avail-able scores. As pointed out by Haugen and Vinnem (2015), changes in the risk level during operation is governed by the activities, with system conditions as a constraint on what can be done. Identified PIFs are a mix of personal PIFs. BARS allows a quantitative assessment of these factors by asking a group of respondents to read the definition of an organizational factor and descriptions for ineffective behavior (score 1) to very effective behavior (score 5) and rank their organization on the scale. I-RISK) and QRA parameters. These factors are called risk influencing factors which are understood as ”a set of conditions which influence the level of specified risks related to a given activity or system” (Rosness, 1998), process operation, corrective maintenance, preventive maintenance, well operation), and component/equipment (basic event, safety critical task, event and MCS).
I-RISK incorporates the effects of a particular safety management system in terms of eight delivery systems to technical parameters. HCL hybrid develops a principle to assign the CPT. MACHINE and the x-factor model assign conditional probabilities to all the possible combinations of states of the RIFs instead of assigning weights. The RIFs included in the models are only those that may influence the leak frequency. In RISK_OMT, the RIFs are assumed to have true values that we do not have exact knowledge about. Individual factors cover reasons for slips and lapses;SAM uses human decisions and actions as an intermediate variable between organization and system performance. WPAM and BORA follows the same interpretation. The factors are classified into three levels within nine groups. As part of the decision-making about whether to perform activities or not, this is clearly relevant information. Activity performance risk (APR)ACR says something about the effect on risk after we have completed an activity while Activity performance risk is the risk associated with performing the action, or the risk level during the activity. The sources of RIFs of the frameworks can be divided into four categories: accident/incident databases, Safety Management Sys-tem (SMS) and reporting systems, organization theories, and pre-defined sets of factors from previous work.1.2., ORIM, BORA); ORIM applies a data-driven and expert based method to establish a Cox proportional hazard model to get estimated coefficients as weights. The overall challenge of using conditional probability tables (CPT) lies in the fact that the number of probabilities required can be substantial, something which makes the assignment process difficult to carry out in practice, WPAM, BORA, HCL hybrid, RISK_OMT. (3) Expert evaluation. Some of them have a single-level structure (MACHINE, SAM) without constraints. In addition, the review also looks at how interaction and common cause are treated in the models.AnalysisIn daily operation of an oil and gas process plant, we have to relate to different aspects of risk compared to when we are designing a plant, knowledge, attention, stress, etc.. These ”risk types” as we call them are described in more detail in Yang and Haugen (2016), and we only briefly describe them here, as a basis for the following discussion. The others have two. Weighting process. Weighting of RIFs is to evaluate the importance of RIFs relative to the analyzed object. Risk indicator, as a measurable representation of the RIF, was introduced as an operational variable of theoretical RIFs. These elements demonstrate how organizational performance and human performance interface with risk influence models. The risk indicators are used to assess risk on a quantitative perspective. In reviewed frameworks, they are used interchangeably. Using RIF audit aided by BORA and RISK_OMT incorporate operational barriers into QRA that enable risk influencing structure to be used for APR estimation.
As a result, many changes in factors that influence the probability of hazardous events actually have no or little impact on QRA results (Vatn and Haugen, 2013). Different terms are however used, and, as pointed out by Groth and Mosleh (2012). This limits the conventional QRAs to be used to reflect the changes of baseline risk level due to completion of the analysed activity. Direct organizational RIFs: Factors that shape worker’s behavior that are strongly related to organization. These terms are used without being defined specifically enough to ensure consistent interpretation of similar RIFs across methods. Moreover, QRA typically averages a range of consequences and provides risk results in terms of expected losses, which is not sensitive enough for status changes of technical safety systems. Conventional QRAs for offshore installations have been focused on modelling of technical systems and layouts, with limited explicit modelling of activities. This is a weakness in daily operation when the first priority always is to avoid accidents, not to reduce the consequences should they occur.The conventional QRA may be regarded as a system-based analysis that was developed for quantifying the risk level of the design of the plant, for prioritizing technical risk reduction measures and for comparing alternative designs. The RIFs are more on the operational level, such as work practice, procedure, guideline, instructions, planning, supervision, coordination, preventive maintenance program, production/safety trade-offs, resource allocation, etc. Note that we use RIF as a common term for PIFs/PSFs as well. Indirect organizational RIFs: RIFs at organizational level that are root causes for system risk/accidents. WPAM use the terms culture level, ownership, safety culture, and time urgency. These RIFs are generally counted for through the quantification of their influence on probability of human failures, or operational management on technical failures. However, the ability to model HOFs is clearly important, even if the basic models need to be modified also. These barriers are usually not explicitly reflected into the QRA, but their significance promotes them into APR and PR estimation. By saying that the leak frequency only is dependent on the type and number of equipment, not the number of activities can cause leaks.
Gaps The objective of this part is to give a better understanding of concepts of risk influencing modelling and to evaluate how existing frameworks can be used to model activity-related risks. However, learnings from these frameworks can be valuable to activity performance risk, which is the risk associated with performing the action, and period risk, which captures risk over a concerned period. Planning is critical to identification of interactions of activities while evaluating PR, hence operational management RIFs are the RIFs that influence the performance of planning. This raises requirement to understand how the activities will influence the system locally and globally while planning. This means the rating, weighting, and propagation can be the same as well to keep modelling consistency. Summary of RIFs and activity risk modelling. An illustration of activity-related risk and relevant RIFs, and implications from reviewed frameworks are shown in Fig. However, learnings from these frameworks can be valuable to activity performance risk, which is the risk associated with performing the action, and period risk, which captures risk over a concerned period. A comparative study is undertaken to show differences between the frameworks from both qualitative and quantitative aspects (Tables 1 and 3). For APR analysis, more attention is directed to human failure that can lead to failures/deviations of performance of most of the safety critical parameters.With a focus on concrete technical conditions of the systems, RIFs are not necessarily explicitly modelled for ACR. This will be the next step of the research, which will focus more on quantification of activity performance risk and period risk via operational risk indicators. The review has been done in a very thorough manner, to provide a clear picture of similarities and differences of the reviewed framework. The Risk influencing factors and corresponding structures from reviewed frameworks are summarized in Table 2, as a basis to explore what type of RIFs may be relevant for activity-related risks, which are activity consequence risk, activity performance risk, and period risk. This also applies to technical conditions of barrier system for APR. One conclusion is that reviewed frameworks are mostly aiming at updating QRA that are established for the design phase in the first place. 5. Table 5 summarizes the implications from reviewed frameworks following the same struc-ture as the review in Tables 2 and 3.There is no single framework that provides all the answers to modelling of the three aspects of risk. Conclusion and further workThe objective of this part is to give a better understanding of concepts of risk influencing modelling and to evaluate how existing frameworks can be used to model activity-related risks. The influence of RIFs to activity performance risk is via human performance that are essential to some of the safety critical parameters. RIFs and activity risk modellingA summarized illustration of activity-related risk and relevant RIFs, and implications from reviewed frameworks are shown in Fig. The way that QRAs currently are performed will not be able to provide most of the information for activity-related risk. In conclusion, we found that risk influence methodology with risk indicators might be a good alternative to model and estimate activity performance risk and period risk with limitations. Operational management RIFs are essential to performance of planning, which is critical to identification of interactions while evaluating period risk. Planning is critical to identification of interactions of activities while evaluating PR, hence operational management RIFs are the RIFs that influence the performance of planning.
Amongst various impacting factors, extreme events, such attack, civil conflict and regional war, may play the most important role in country risk and further the international oil market. For example, due to the Iraq War, the total oil supply of Iraq was significantly cut off by about 35. These factors may impact not only the stability of exporting regions, but also the energy security of importing countries. These above studies gave assessment to existing importing planning; The use of improved portfolio approach to quantify the diversification index of China’s crude oil imports. That is, low importing cost is often accompanied with high risk exposure of imports disruption. Wu et al. Under this background, trying to complement extant studies and formulate a novel optimal decision methodology to obtain optimal portfolio of oil imports with two objectives: i. however, they have not answered the question what a portfolio of imports from various regions is appropriate and optimal. These risks mentioned above are, basically, components of country risk in exporting regions [13]. Furthermore, the correlation coefficient between the average of China’s importing costs from different regions (including Middle East, Eurasia, South & Central America, Asia Pacific, North America, North Africa, West Africa and East &Southern Africa) and the importing risks compiled by International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) is about “0.044thousand barrels per day in 2003. [12] Proposed an OICR Index incorporated with country risk to evaluate oil-importing risk. Oil-importing plan should accordingly be adjusted when country risk of exporting sources is strikingly changed by such extreme events. Minimizing importing costs and managing risk exposure against reliable supply.791 in 2002 to 1318. Specifically, an exporter’s country risk may hinder its oil importers from a reliable and stable oil supply through reducing its own total supply. Risk exposure of oil-importing disruption is strongly influenced by a series of national-level risks in oil-exporting regions, such as political instability, accidental events and combination thereof quantitatively measured both systematic and specific risks associated with Japanese energy imports using Sharpe’s One-way Analysis of Variance [5] .Consequently, it is necessary to recognize impact of the given kind of extreme events on country risk, and then adjust the importing strategy timely. Thus, Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEA) can be introduced to solve Pareto-optimal oil-importing planning with the two conflicting objectives in the novel methodology. For example, based on the Hirschman-Herfindahl index (HHI), Neff introduced the correlation between productions of different sources to assessdiversifying state of energy supply in the Asia-Pacific region [10]. Therefore, as a special risk at the national level, country risk can be introduced to reflect the risk exposure against a reliable and stable crude oil supply in the oil-importing programming.1021 in the year of2009. In the international oil market, the cost and the risk are often conflicted with each other;38% from 2039.Actually, there have been numerous researches focusing on the risk exposure against a reliable energy supply, and a series of assessment models have been formulated to evaluate the risk exposure in diversifying oil-importing sources. For example, many oil exporters, such as Iraq, Sudan and Libya, are quite unstable regions, where conflicts or wars are vulnerable to emerge, though they have rich oil resources with relatively low price. In the international energy market, country risk of exporting regions can be generally referred as potentiality of decrease in the expected energy supply, which oil importers or investors would be confronted[14,15]. Accordingly, the oil-importing optimization is simulated under different scenarios of emergency with different impact coefficients. Therefore, this part introduces an adjustment coefficient of country risk into the multi-objective programming model to express the impact of extreme events.
Some conceptualize resilience and vulnerability as subcomponents of each other (Turneret al. The EU-funded research project ENSURE, for example, has developed a resilience and vulnerability assessment framework and operational tool for natural and technical hazards (Menoni et al.2009; Some scholars see advantage in the use of the concept of vulnerability in that it helps bridge different disciplinary perspectives and integrates biophysical, political, economic, and social factors that influence the degree of damage suffered (Cutter 1996; 2003), while others see one or both concepts as subcomponents of other umbrella terms, for example, risk(Cutter et al. 2710).2011).
Many researchers applies the concept of resilience to ecological systems and in his often cited article states that ”resilience determines the resistance of relationships within a system and is a measure of the ability of these systems to absorb changes of state variables, driving variables, and parameters, and still persist” The aim was to develop context-specific, indicator based assessment tools that help the users to identify the strengths and fragilities of a given territory and community with respect to extreme natural events. 2013). Regardless of the specific term or school of thought, recent meta-analyses of resilience and vulnerability concepts and methodologies have shown that there is often little coherence between the theoretical definitions and the methodologies applied in empirical studies (Ionescu et al. Park et al. Alexander2013; Zhou et al. Parallel to this development, by the end of the nineteenth century the term resilience began to be used in mechanics and the evolving science of engineering, where it was connected with the terms robustness and ductility.Alexander recently traced back the use of the term resilience from Seneca the Elder, through Francis Bacon, to its first use in connection with disaster recovery by Tomes, after the earthquake in the city of Shimoda in Japan in 1854 (Alexander 2013, p. Despite this conceptual blurriness and the difficulties in applying resilience and vulnerability, both concepts are used in disaster risk sciences. The origin of the concept of resilience as used in disaster risk research is often attributed to the work of Holling, who applied the concept to social-ecological systems (Holling 1973). Blaikie et al. Menoni et al. Chambers and Conway 1992; Miller et al. 2004). Ionescu et al. Similarly to resilience, the concept of vulnerability has been applied to and elaborated in various disciplinary research domains ranging from hazard and disaster studies to geophysical sciences, human and political ecology, economics, and psychology, which has also led to fundamental conceptual differences (Miller et al. The various schools of thought that have elaborated on the concept of vulnerability focus on different conceptual elements of this concept, ranging from the direct outcome of a hazard to the influencing societal conditions, such as exposure, susceptibility, coping capacity, power relations, and social capital (Chambers1989; Miller et al. After decades of resilience research and a rising body of literature applying this concept to disaster risk sciences, divergent definitions and highly varied methodological approaches exist. Vulnerability is understood as a concept describing the differences in the degree of damage incurred from natural hazards that are manifested for an individual person, for a whole community, a city, or an entire region (Hufschmidt 2011). Bohle et al. 2012). (2013) show that a recent rise of publications in the field of disaster management may be related to a series of natural and manmade disasters since the new millennium, which have been conceptualized using the resilience concept (for example, the Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami in 2004, and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the Gulf of Mexico in 2005). Hinkel 2011). Wisner et al.2010). 2013). 2004). In the latter case scholars often subsume former terms such as adaptive capacity or coping capacity under the concept of resilience. (2010)not only state that there is a divide between theory and empirical application of the two concepts, but also emphasize that there is still a big gap between the ways in which these terms are understood and applied by academics, policy makers, and practitioners. Park et al. Building upon this insight, we first provide a summary of the concepts and attempts to gain precision in defining resilience and vulnerability, by relying on existing literature mainly from disaster risk sciences. Anderson and Woodrow 1998;1 Attempts to Define Resilience and Vulnerability. Resilience, broadly defined as the capacity to resist and recover from loss, has developed as a central concept in disaster risk research in the last decades. 2012). 2010; UNDRO 1982;Oliver-Smith 1994, 2002;Although this is not the first application of the concept, Holling’s work catalyzed a rapid growth in use of the term resilience in different fields of research after 1973 (Parket al.Nevertheless, there is an ongoing debate on how to characterize vulnerability in both the theory and practice of disaster risk management (Birkmann 2006;Resilience and Vulnerability as Umbrella Terms for Disaster Risk ResearchBoth resilience and vulnerability are concepts that have evolved in different disciplines and are applied in different fields of practice-disaster risk management being one of these fields. We then elaborate the benefits of retaining some vagueness in the resilience and vulnerability concepts used in the interaction between science and practice in the field of DRM. However, they see a difference between the implementation of the concepts of vulnerability and resilience: although vulnerability has long been incorporated into practice in disaster risk communities, there are only a few examples that document how resilience is explicitly incorporated into practice and policy. Cardona 2004; 1994; 2010; Though the advantages of precisely defined concepts for interdisciplinary research are evident, conceptual vagueness has some benefits for communication and for knowledge exchange across disciplinary boundaries and between the areas of science, policy, and practice. The differences are connected to different epistemological approaches, which partly lead to fundamental conceptual differences and focuses of resilience. 2008; 2009). Its use expanded from systems ecology to other fields of research, including disaster risk research. Wisner et al. 2008; Resilience also has appeared in psychology and medicine, where it was applied in studies with traumatized children to describe the capabilities of individuals under stress to maintain their psychological integrity and to adapt to circumstances produced by calamity (see Ho¨fler in this issue). They have been in use for many decades, but there is no single precise definition of resilience and vulnerability. Scholarly debates on resilience and vulnerability have developed independently of each other over decades, but there are a number of recent works that discuss the two concepts as interlinked (Cutter et al.Nevertheless, the idea of resilience has been used in other disciplines, for example, psychology, engineering, for much longer (for the etymology and evolution of the concept, see Manyena 2006;
For example, due to the Iraq War, the total oil supply of Iraq was significantly cut off by about 35. For example, basedon the Hirschman-Herfindahl index (HHI), Neff introduced thecorrelation between productions of different sources to assessdiversifying state of energy supply in the Asia-Pacific region [10]. Furthermore, the correlation coefficient between the average of China’s importing costs from different regions (including Middle East, Eurasia, South & Central America, Asia Pacific, North America, North Africa, West Africa and East &Southern Africa) and the importing risks compiled by International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) is about “0. In the international energy market, country risk of exporting regions can be generally referred as potentiality of decrease in the expected energy supply, which oil importers or investors would be confronted[14,15].e. These risks mentioned above are, basically, components of country risk in exporting regions [13]. These factors may impact not only the stability of exporting regions, but also the energy security of importing countries. Specifically, an exporter’s country risk may hinder its oil importers from a reliable and stable oil supply through reducing its own total supply [12,16,17].791 in 2002 to 1318. Therefore, this paper introduces an adjustment coefficient of country risk into the multi-objective programming model to express the impact of extreme events. [11] used improved portfolio approach to quantify the diversification index of China’s crude oil imports. Oil-importing plan should accordingly be adjusted when country risk of exporting sources is strikingly changed by such extreme events. Accordingly, the oil-importing optimization is simulated under different scenarios of emergency with different impact coefficients. Therefore, as a special risk at the national level, country risk can be introduced to reflect the risk exposure against a reliable and stable crude oil supply in the oil-importing programming. Amongst various impacting factors, extreme events, such attack, civil conflict and regional war, may play the most important role in country risk and further the international oil market [18-21].Lesbirel (2004) quantitatively measured both systematic and specific risks associated with Japanese energy imports using Sharpe’s One-way Analysis of Variance [5].38% from 2039. Risk exposure of oil-importing disruption is strongly influenced by a series of national-level risks in oil-exporting regions, such as political instability, accidental events and combination thereof. Thus, Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEA) can be introduced to solve Pareto-optimal oil-importing planning with the two conflicting objectives in the novel methodology. [12] proposed an OICR Index incorporated with country risk to evaluate oil-importing risk. He et al. Wu et al. These above studies gave assessment to existing importing planning;Actually, there have been numerous researches focusing on therisk exposure against a reliable energy supply, and a series ofassessment models have been formulated to evaluate the riskexposure in diversifying oil-importing sources.1021 in the year of2009. however, they have not answered the question what a portfolio of imports from various regions is appropriate and optimal. Consequently, it is necessary to recognize impact of the given kind of extreme events on country risk, and then adjust the importing strategy timely. that is, low importing cost is often accompanied with high risk exposure of imports disruption. For example, many oil exporters, such as Iraq, Sudan and Libya, are quite unstable regions, where conflicts or wars are vulnerable to emerge, though they have rich oil resources with relatively low price. Minimizing importing costs and managing risk exposure against reliable supply.044thousand barrels per day in 2003. Under this background, this paper tries to complement extant studies and formulate a novel optimal decision methodology to obtain optimal portfolio of oil imports with two objectives: i. In the international oil market, the cost and the risk are often conflicted with each other.
Figure: 9
They consider resilience as an outcome of a recursive process, and apply their framework to river flood management-without developing a clear methodology for resilience assessment. In particular, these studies employ semi-quantitative vulnerability indices and geospatial assessments, as well as qualitative surveys and participatory approaches. Park et al. Without an explicit operational definition, resilience has only a broad meaning, and remains a vague concept rather than a practical policy or management tool. While this specific research field and the number of applied vulnerability assessments are still expanding, the conceptual debates seem far from resolved. Literature on vulnerability has grown and developed to a certain maturity level at which vulnerability has become a common evaluation feature of many risk assessments. These recent examples show that there are some attempts to make resilience and vulnerability meaningful for disaster risk science and practice. (2003) still holds true: Rather than providing a definition and an explanation of an observable, measurable system attribute, resilience has become an umbrella concept with some normative appeal that leads to considerable confusion. (2013) develop a heuristic framework for a resilience analysis that is differentiable from, but complementary to, risk analysis for disaster management. Nevertheless, the criticism of Klein et al.
Operational Risk in Oil and Gas Industry Conceptual Framework
The quality of a quantitative risk assessment study is mostly dependent on the effectiveness of the hazard identification stage. The management of the different companies must take a note of the different kinds of risks and the potential hazards that have a hazardous impact over the business. It is important for the business to consider all types and all kinds of risk that are involved while the operation of the business undergoes. Quantitative risk management is one of the most important types of risk management activities that are undertaken by the risk management team to assess and limit the risk in the business. Generic and Non-generic are two of the most general types of scenarios that lead to the loss of the containment. It is important for the business that the hazard scenarios have a relevant risk impact on the different types of the study impacts of the organization. The paper helps the organization to implement different types of tools that enhance operational risk management. The tools help the management to assess the scenario and define them on a large scale, wide scope. This helps in the proper identification of the business. The generic as well as non generic scenario failure rate data is also examined in the following paper. It is important for the management of the business to assess the relevant risk impact on the different kinds of the hazard scenarios of the business. Oil industries and refineries are generally much large in size and thus the organization must have the necessary safety measures to tackle any kinds of unprecedented risks.
Overview of Risk
Risk can be measured by a simple yet complex risk equation that relates to the different kinds of process industries and it has been referred by the amount of loss to the finance of the company and the human injury. It can also be measured by the likelihood of the incident and also the amount of loss that is sustained. The risk can be said to be hazardous if the amount of loss is more whereas the risk is said to be low if the amount of loss sustained is minor in nature. Risk can be defined as the combined effect of both consequence and frequency. The analysis of the risk can be termed as the development of a quantitative estimate of a risk that is mainly based on the engineering evaluation and the mathematical techniques for the combination of the different estimates about the consequences and the frequency of the incidents. Therefore management of risks can be termed as the identification and the control of hazards through both management and technological solutions. Occasionally QRA is conducted solely to meet the regulatory requirement. However such an activity rarely preludes precludes using the results as part of the corporate risk management program of the organization. Quantified risk assessment can be used for a number of different purposes. However it is one of the most valuable as part of the risk management program. The quantitative Risk Assessment can be divided into four primary tasks and a reporting activity. The primary tasks include;
Identification of the Hazards
Analysis of the Frequency
Analysis of the Hazards
Determination of the risks
The concentration will be directly focused on the hazard identification stage. The main task of the paper will be to describe an effective methodology for the proper streamlining of the hazard scenario identification and the development for the risk assessment of the large scale refineries.
Questionnaires
The methodology part will consist of a set of different questions that will together formulate a questionnaire. This questionnaire will be provided to the employees, officers and the suppliers to get the actual response that will help determine the risks present within the industry and also help in the reduction of the risks. The questionnaires are as follows;
What kinds of risks pose a challenge to the oil and gas industries?
How are risks able to penetrate the different barriers of safety that are present within the oil and gas industry?
Mention some of the weakest points in the system of the oil and gas industries?
What are the main causes of disaster in the oil and gas industry or how does risk leads to the risk in the oil and gas industry?
Identification of Hazard
Hazards to be considered
Location
Facility
Released Gases
Pasadena, Texas
Polyethylene Unit
Ethylene, Butane
Kuwait
Crude Unit
NGL’s
Mexico City, Mexico
LPG Storage
Propane, Butane
Flixboro, UK
Petrochemical
Cyclohexane
Norco, Louisiana
FCC Gas Recovery
C2-C3
Texas City, Texas
Isomerization Unit
C3-C6
Torrance, California
Hydrocracker
Hydrogen
The identification of the scenario must focus on the different kinds of process equipments and piping where the conditions in which the gases are released can lead to serious hazards;
Toxicity Impact
Pool Fire
Flame Jet
Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion
Vapor cloud explosion
Fireball
The things which have not been identified cannot be assessed or mitigated easily. The importance of the hazard identification stage must not be underestimated at any cost. It must be noted that hazards are not predictable at all and they might occur from new and unknown sources and can be a major source of harm to the organization. Apart from this the organization must also make the necessary arrangements to close all the gaps that can be a potential threat to the organization.
Vapor Cloud Explosions
Stronger explosions are produced when the fuel concentration in the air is close to stoichiometric. The type of the explosion and magnitude of damage is strongly influenced by the sensitivity of the fuel, the amount of fuel present within the flammability limits, the strength of the ignition source and the presence of significant confinement. Vapor cloud explosion hazards can occur in the hydrocarbon processing facilities and upon immediate or delayed ignition. The time when different kinds of sensitive fuels such as hydrogen, acetylene, ethylene, propane, propylene etc are present, the risk assessment must focus on the loss of the containment events that can produce or are present in a large amount and can transit from a deflagration to a large and powerful detonation. The main characteristics of such an explosion are;
Liquid and two phase streams that are composed of hydrocarbons with the carbon numbers ranging from the numbers of 1 to number 6 and above, their normal boiling point such that flashing upon the release will occur. and
Gas streams composed of hydrogen or hydrocarbons with carbon numbers again ranging from the likes of 1 to 6 and operating at an elevated pressure.
Pool Fires
The highly ignitability of liquid hydrocarbons increases with increasing processing and the storage of the temperature. A release temperature at or above the automatic ignition point will signify the 100% likelihood of ignition.
Considering the following process of the conditions at the time of evaluating the risks involved in the pool fire;
Liquids stored at temperatures above their flash point but much less than the ir auto ignition point can form liquid pools upon their release. A pool fire or a flame jet can result that will result depending on the degree of superheat of the stored materials. Liquids stored at the temperatures at or above the auto ignition point will immediately ignite upon the release.
If and when ignited the following releases can yield pool fires.
Figure 10: Graph of Auto Ignition Temperature compared with Average Carbon Chain Length
The plot of the auto ignition temperature as the function of the carbon number is provided in the above diagram and it clearly shows that typical hydrocarbons with a carbon number of 9 or more than 9 will auto ignite upon the release if they are discharged at temperatures that equals to or are greater than 200 degree.
Refinery process locations are crucial to the auto ignition. The auto ignition is the bottoms of heavy essential columns in units that include the likes of:
Crude and Vacuum Handiwork
FCC and Coker Fractionalization
Pool Open fire hazards will be localized and thus the effect of thermal rays is typically limited to within 1 or 2 pool diameters from the particular advantage of fire. Thermal Rays is generally assembled by drinking water moisture, or carbon-di-oxide within the air. In addition to this, thermal ray’s intensity decays in proportion to the amount of distance the fire spreads itself. A person who is generally subjected to a cold weather radiation debridement of five kW/meter square can feel the pain in 20 meter seconds. There are also second level burns that may cause grave injury. The general ideals of the emissive capabilities for hydrocarbon pool fire ranges from 280 kW/meter square. The existence of minimizing, drainage and so forth in procedure areas, different kinds of spells that are generally liquefied are confined together. The presence of drainage, minimizing and so forth in the different proceeding areas the different types of the liquefied spells are often confined in nature. API 521 implies the likes of the different types of the different ranges of the fireplace of the circles coming from 2500 to 5000 ft2. It makes proper use of the different types of the possible regions of the pool, the determined radiation ranges and many more as such. The determined radiation ranges mainly includes the likes of the C8 Hydrocarbon. The hazard ranges in such cases are usually limited in nature because of the different types of the demand and main capabilities of the organization. Apart from this it must also be noted that the radiation ranges are demonstrated below for any kinds of C8 hydrocarbons. The hazard ranges of the followi9ng are very much limited in nature and are generally be contained between the battery limits of the different kinds of procedure units. Generally Bulkier oil burns up with a dark flame which usually further reduces the emissive power.
Criteria
Hazard Distance
5
43
10
26
12.5
23
25
Maximum flux reached equals 15 kW/m2
The limited risk in the pool area fires and the following kind of methodology offers that they are really considered to be intended for different kind of process models. Five Kw/m2
Flame Jets and Vapor Cloud (Flash) Fires
The fire jets can occur as a result of highly harmful gas and two step produces. Flame Aircraft can produce extreme heating with flame emissive powers varying up to three hundred and fifty Kilowatt per meter square. Fire Jet impinging on close by structures and vessels can result into catastrophic outages in less than 12 minutes. In the event that immediate combustion does not happen and ruthless releases are certainly not confined. In such cases the jet engine will continue to distribute until postponed ignition happens or the launch ends. Under the following conditions the lower flammability limit is generally reached as the jet energy is much greater than the ambient disturbance. On the other hand when postponed ignition happens and with respect to the sensitivity from the fuel as well as the strength from the ignition source, a small fireball or explosion may be experienced that is followed by a flame aircraft that that will continue until and unless the launch process ends. The quantity of active materials in the fireball/explosion can be substantial or negligible in nature. If instant ignition does not occur as well as high pressure aircraft is limited and or blocked by nature the jet manages to lose all of its energy and will continue dispersing till delayed combustion occurs or maybe the release totally stops. The time when postponed ignition happens an adobe flash fire will certainly occur. With respect to the sensitivity from the fuel, the level of confinement, as well as the strength from the ignition resource, the adobe flash can speed up and result in surge. The amount of the different materials involved in the adobe flash fire/explosion can be limited in nature. Expensive fires have the tendency to proceed in flame rates of speed that ranges from 12 to 20 m/s. In other words it can be said that the population staying in the interior parts will have to endure an adobe flash fire. In such cases of flash open fire the fire is generally believed to spread from outside to the interior parts of the building. These kinds of fire often provide the residents with perfect time to escape the grudges of fire with the use of advanced technology.
Fireballs and BLEVEs
The following types of the events involve dangerous accidents. This includes a devastating vessel fail that contains flammable items. A BLEVE generates mechanical harm from all the stored PV energy inside the different materials of the vessel. The vessels made up of the similar saturated fluids or two phases leads to overpressure and causes the blinking process in the system of the vessel. In this way the materials of the vessel being flammable in nature ignite once the vessel fails. In such case a fireball/vapor cloud surge can affect. The degree of the outcomes or the damage will certainly depend on the quantity of the material present within the flammability range, the effectiveness of the combustion source and the sensitivity from the different contents. The cause of the devastating vessel failing can be many. There can be lot many causes for such devastation. This can include the construction problems, exposure to pool open fire, possessing a deficient alleviation system, runaway reaction, fire jet impingement on the vapor space leading to localized heating system and the deterioration in the metallic system of the vessel. BLEVE’s can occur even with different non flammable articles including the likes of water in steam explosions. The pressure vessels will certainly fail at the time when the material pressure surpasses three times the MAWP or perhaps 2/3 the best tensile strength from the metal in the temperature from the event. The overpressure produced from the devastating failure of the vessels are made up of different forms of gases or from saturated water and are capable to produce considerable damage inside the near field.
Toxic Dispersion from Sour Water
The sour taste of water that is made up of H2S, hydrogen and carbon-di-oxide is produced in several refinery processes. The following presents any toxic publicity hazard to hydrogen sulfide gas. The hydrogen sulfide dissociates into the iconic species HS- and S-2 into drinking water. The disassociation is improved by the concentration of large-scale pH circumstances. The existence of NH3 inside the water, the pH of typical bitter water is usually 8 or more in nature. A recent distribution has shown that the balance vapor pressure or disassociated H2S compared to non associated H2S is generally much lower by percentage of 96% or better than that. The distribution concluded that for any large kind of leakages for bitter water, the H2S risk zone prolonged to 50 meters to an EPRG 2 (30ppm) endpoint. According to the evaluation of ioMosaic a collection rupture to transport 40, 500kg/hr of sour drinking water containing 0.7% H2S provided same kind of results in nature.
The following information is important as because bitter water lines within the procedure units need not to be considered unless of course there is populace within 55 meters from the stage where the release is stated to take place. It can also happen at the time when;
All the sour drinking water channels with H2S at or perhaps greater than 0.5% and heat at or perhaps greater than 75 C can be thought about
Sour drinking water channels with heat less than 75 C needs to be considered, unless of course the leak location is at 50 meters to a noticeable control space or busy building
Vapor/Gas and two phase streams with H2S in or more than 0.5% must be considered intended for different kinds of toxic hazards.
Wealthy amine channels can be treated likewise as the presence of the alkanolamines will likely produce a much higher pH condition.
Hazard Scenarios
A typical oil refinery includes the likes of the storage and process ships, process models and last but not the least in anyways the important canals. In this wide breakdown, pushes, compressors, warmth exchangers, plus some other kind of valves are considered to be the areas where the management stores and process ships and the other kind of the procedure units. Flanged joints little bore fixtures and different kinds of additional valves are believed to be the areas of the pipe infrastructure.
A proper and effective strategy can be used throughout the hazard situation identification level that classifies the risks into two different types namely the generic and secondly the non-generic. The generic risks are considered to be the risks that occur from loss of hold or from damage of pipes and different kinds of equipment. This includes the likes of leakage to the pipes, pipe ruptures like full bore pipe ruptures, catastrophic failure of the ships and many more as such. On the other hand Non-Generic scenarios consider more unusual failing models that are quite specific towards the process of becoming much more analyzed in nature and like a refinery operation. Each and every time, the purpose of the hazard recognition stage is always to provide an extensive list of different risk scenarios along with different kinds of the needed data that are to be taken to the risk analysis level. A comprehensive set of required data for each of the different situations have been offered below. This includes;
Scenario Name
Process Flow Plan
Fluid Conditions (Temperature, Pressure, Stage, Composition, Surge Reactivity, Toxicity)
Release Heads
Release Flow Rate
Equipment Types and Size
Hole Diameters
Piping Size
Release Period
Release Angles
Degree of Confinement
Release Frequency
Generic Scenarios
The following kinds of risk generally occur from damage to hardware and other kind of equipments. This includes wide range of pipelines, flanges, small pipe connections, regulators and many more as such. It will be possible to use a simplified yet reasonably correct method that ties the possibilities of a particular chemical substance or essential oil release that comes directly from the pipe at all the different lengths of the service. The line measures, which will impact the release rate of recurrence, can be approximated from a different storyline plan and elevation sketches. The following approximate lengths will be then modified by using the group of general guidelines to ensure that the best risk computations are affordable. The different set of rules utilized to adjust the size that the pipe boosts the overall tube length and therefore the rate of recurrence of the expected launch. The different rules or the following criterion are as follows;
The total determined line size can be thought to be an arrears value of just 1.5 that enables the fact that piping commonly does not adhere to the different direct pathways
This element must be improved to two where the goods are close together
A certain factor of two is also utilized if the equipment item is extremely large that includes for air flow heat exchangers or content
Where several of the over cases happens that depends on calculating between different kinds of huge items that are close enough an issue of 3 must be used
Non-Generic Scenarios
Non-Generic Scenarios consider pump seal off failures, corrosion failures of different forms of dead hip and legs or drinking water boots upon receivers because of sour drinking water attack, or perhaps overpressure failing of low pressure ships downstream an excellent source of pressure separators that keeps a liquefied interface is usually preventing pressure blow through and the upstream pressure is usually >3 times the MAWP from the downstream vessel. The choice process needs Process Circulation Diagrams and Mass Balances to identify the regions of the different types of process models that satisfy the process circumstances specified over. Then, the Piping and Instrumentation Sketches for all the different areas must be reviewed to evaluate the potential for the Non-Generic failure modes in the above list and for the adequate pressure and inventory.
Vessel Selection
The methodology views hydrocarbon that is made up of vessels with 5 or even more cubic meters of products on hand. This indicates that it is among 3 or 4 metric tons of hydrocarbon contents with respect to the typical choice for installing of remotely managed isolation regulators for different types of strength companies.
Methodology
Introduction
Philosophy of Knowledge Creation
Epistemology
Ontology
Axiology
Research philosophy
Positivism
Empiricism
Realism
Interpretivism
Research Strategy or Methodology
Qualitative Research Methodology
Quantitative Research Methodology
Research Methodology Approach in this study
Questionnaire
Interviews
Case Study
Release Duration
Launch duration may have a significant effect on the consequences of the hazardous event. Different types of harmful scenarios, publicity duration are actually one of the most critical elements. For burnable or forceful scenarios, the quantity of flammable mass available depends on the launch duration. The time of the release period guidance can be derived from API Publication about 581. The following strategy takes into account the different kinds of detection program and the type of remoteness system, as well as the condition of the fluid becoming released. The below given table provides an example of how the launch duration can be estimated:
Table –Guidelines for establishing Continuous Release Detection and Isolation Times Based On API 581
Class
Types Of Detection System
A
Instrumentation Designed specifically to detect material losses by changes in operating conditions(i.e. loss of pressure or flow) in the system
B
Suitably located detectors to determine when the material is present outside the pressure containing envelope
C
Visual detection, cameras, or detectors with marginal coverage
Class
Types of Isolation System
A
Isolation or shutdown systems activated directly from process instrumentation detectors with no detectors to determine
B
Isolation or showdown systems activated by operators in the control room or other suitable locations remote from the leak
C
Isolation dependent on manually operated valves
Failure Frequencies
There are many types of different effective strategies that are generally used to determine the consequence or frequency pairs for comprehensive QRA research that includes a) fault or event woods analysis, b) historical information regarding the failing rate, c) Layer of Protection Evolution. The last method or the Layer of Protection Evolution is generally referred to as the LOPA Method and is gradually attaining importance for common usage. The use of the event trees and shrubs analysis, describes within the systematic style the reasonable sequence of events. This leads to the creation of a hazardous situation. The trees and shrubs are quantified after the following sequence to supply an estimate from the hazard situation frequency. The generic outages will be helped by the use of the historical failing rate. However the following will not be suggested for “Non-Generic” process related outages or air flow from piles or different forms of alleviation devices. Apart from this a person is not able to consider the impact of safety instrumented systems upon risk reduction. The frequency of each and every situation is evaluated by carrying out the layer of different safety analysis technique. The following technique can be described within the CCPS circulation Layer of Protection Analysis and Simplified Process Risk Scenarios.
Generic Failure Frequency Data for Equipment
Common frequency information for the different types of equipment failure could be based on the ideals that are generally summarized in AP-581. Risk Based Inspection Base Source Document and 2K. The different types of API values depend on a number of sources.
Table: Generic Equipment Failure Rate Data from API-581(Hydrocarbon Service)
The following table shown above shows the generic rate of recurrence values offered above suggests ideals from API-581. The following type of generic rate provides a systematic way the common frequency ideals are adjusted to reflect. The operating service management devices and different equipment conditions reflects the following ideals.
F Adjusted= F generic x F Equipment Factor x F Management Factor
The management devices factor generally varies from a worth of 0.1 to 10 and also applies to all of the generic falling frequency information that is shown in the above table. The equipment element meets the specific requirement for which it is actually needed. The values that have been shown in the above figure totally depend on the different questionnaires which usually assess the top quality of a particular site that mechanized integrity and process the security systems.
Non-Generic Failure Frequency Calculation
The following types of the Non-Generic situations, is a more comprehensive frequency evaluation. is required. The selected methodology implements the proper use of the Layer of Safety Analysis technique. There are a number of different advantages of using the mentioned technique for Non-Generic scenarios. On the other hand, the traditional risk assessment strategies such as problem tree evaluation and the utilization of the historical falling rate information;
LOPA facilities the dedication of even more precise cause-consequence pairs, and for that reason improves situation identification
The different types of the frequencies and the probabilities offered in the CCPS LOPA text message that highlights the information from the oil industries in the chemical substance process sectors since the publication of the was released way back in the year 2001. The information do not need extrapolation of the old information to the present machineries or the information that was created from the other kind of sectors. The main types of the organizational demands leads to the use of the different types of the information created from other sectors towards the chemical industry.
LOPA Methodology
The creation of each and every scenario, the rate of recurrence of the following event that generally generates the explained consequences are decided. The initiating event which causes an unhealthy deviation that generally occurs from normal procedure. The entire scenario includes a number of different events like;
Initiating event which causes an unhealthy deviation that comes from normal process. This can be generally a runner error, the failure of machinery or device or perhaps the occurrence of an external event. The starting event might be highlighted because of the annual rate of recurrence or like the probability for each and every opportunity. For example, the scenarios with an initiating event that are based on error of human beings are usually expressed like a failure price per chance. The event that allows may be expressed because the number of different possibilities per year.
A large enabling event which is generally related to period the system is really exposed to the most unexpected state and within the dangerous state. The amount of similar models can easily grow together through the same kind of situation.
A conditional event that is bound to take place for the different kinds of undesirable effects to take place. An example in this regard will be useful for the better understanding of the following event. The failure of the organization to purge a particular vessel made up of flammable materials with nitrogen prior to the starting of the following repair. The use of the conditional event happens for the undesirable effects to effect. In case when the cause of the failure is because of a fire, then the conditional event is the combustion of the different kind of burnable vapors that was present inside the vessel. Many loss of hold scenarios that includes the likes of the flammable components are not the conditional event in the recurrence, but it is rather developed within an event woods that examines all the feasible consequences considering the likes of No Combustion, Immediate Combustion and Postponed ignition. A totally independent and free Protection Layer or IPL event generally prevents or perhaps reduces the possibilities of failing on the demands. The following table will show the event that will possibility prevent or perhaps reduce the possibility of the situation. An IPL is generally represented by the possibility of failing on the demand.
Table: Sample Scenario Identification and Frequency Estimation Summary Sheet using LOPA
A great IPL is believed to be actually machinery or device or a program that is able to avoid a particular situation from continuing to an unexpected result independent of the starting event or maybe the action of any other layer of safety that is related to the event. The devices in order to be categorized as an IPL must be;
Independent from the initiating event and the aspects of any other IPL
Auditable through the validation of the design and effectiveness
It is effective in avoiding the results
The starting triggers and the probability of failure will be shown in the above figure. The items that include the process and the training and mechanical honesty can be taken into consideration by the starting event rate of recurrence. However they are not considered to be as IPL’s. Similarly, open fire protection is generally considered to be the determining factor that helps to deduce the duration of the event. The following kind of process generally suggests Approach W which is similar to the description of the event in the CCPS LOPA text message. The following message allows a number of different types of IPL to follow the same process or the control program (BPCS) or possibly a BPCS IPL with a BPCS initiating event. The following approach is founded on the presumption that if the BPCS function fails, it really is much more possible that the element that caused the failing is the recognition device or maybe the final control element and never the common logic solver.
Table: Initiating Causes and Likelihood of Failure
The historical plant data is available and this following data must be used in place of the generic data that is available, in the CCPS LOPA text.
Table: Probability of Failure on Demand for Independent Layers
Application of Methodology
The procedures of hazardous situation development factors and requirements can be easily explained with a relatively simpler methodology. This particular type of methodology can be repeated various times in order to make sure that all the equipments like piping, entire refinery and others get recognized. The basic information that is required in order to develop the entire situation; including the process circulation diagrams, device plot programs, device and pipes diagrams, material balances and other equipment lists. Generally, a time schedule can be utilized in order to track and monitor the situations, as soon as they get recognized (Salazar-Aramayo et al.). Moreover, the time schedule can be documented and computerized by using macros, color coding devices and others, for making the data input and output stages simpler.
The risk scenario recognition generally included several factors, which are being discussed as follows;
Few types of equipment are identified first, during the plot strategies and its heads got established.
The installment payments on the pipes feeding equipments are recognized then, depending on its size and the storyline planning level.
Moreover, a modification factor is also applied to measure the length of the pipes taking their height differences into account.
Usually, the conventional factor is one and a half.
The factor of 2 is being utilized when the piping generally involved close coupled equipments.
The piping’s failing frequency in wealthy amine support or sour drinking water should be increased. This means that the water contained more than 0.5 mole percent of hydrogen sulfide, which is over 100 degree centigrade. This factor is increased by taking into account the increased likelihood of corrosion. The tube diameter should be acquired for P&IDs and other equipment lists.
In addition to this, a spreadsheet can be utilized in order to record all the scenarios as soon as they get identified.
Furthermore, the spreadsheet should be automated by using macros, color coding and other methods for simplifying the data input as well as output stages (Brandt, Englander and Bharadwaj).
The method of identifying the hazard scenario generally involved the steps which are as follows;
Firstly, an equipment piece is being identified on the plot and then coordinates got established.
Then the piping feeding got identified and additionally their length was measured on the basis of their plot plan scale. Moreover, a factor of adjustment got applied to measure the length of the pipeline in order to account for the differences in elevation. 1.5 is the standard factor and the factor of 2 is being applied at the time when piping went too far from the main piper. By the main piper, it meant the interconnecting piping between equipments of close couple.
The stream procedure and structure conditions can be obtained from mass stability (Calixto).
The launch elevation is generally being estimated. The great approximation intended is two meters for the piping among all other equipments including pipe shelves, which are normally around six meters.
Isolation and detection can be determined now.
Degree of confinement, surge reactivity and release angles are decided for the entire production, which contains burnable components as well. For instance; the compressor animal shelter will have a release angle of 5D vs. 3D for those areas, which are unconfined. In addition to this, the equipments that are located on the platforms consisting of tools beneath or over must be provided with large or moderate degrees of confinement. The streams are being made up of gases that have minimal explosion channels or reactivity containing least mole percentage of hydrogen that can be considered for possessing high surge reactivity (Barati and Liang).
For the equipment release related situations, the equipment sizes and types are assessed critically. Any type of pumps along with an instrumented sealed container can be utilized in the identification any hazards (Vinnem). For the ships that receive materials from additional vessels, it is important to identify the amount of safety layers on the basis of the arrangements mention in the P&IDs.
After the completion of Hazardous Situations Identification Level, there does not remain any significant effort of completing quantitative risk assessments. The additional stages comprise mainly;
Consequences evaluation,
Population analysis,
Meteorological information analysis,
Ignition source evaluation,
Risk calculation.
All these stages are not certainly taken into consideration in this paper. However, they require substantial efforts of recognition. The usage of computerized equipments, like SuperChems Expert, helps in reducing the overall costs of conducting quantitative risk assessments significantly. This happens particularly if sensitivity and mitigation studies are performed (Rausand). Moreover, SuperChems Expert offers with virtual details and a flexible platform intended for the quantitative risk assessments and facilities citing for two fixed pipelines and services (Suter).
Conclusion
The research methodology carried out in this paper will provide with successful methodology techniques intended to streamline the risk scenario advancement and recognition for slightly large, huge and refinery quantitative risk assessments. Similarly, it can be regarded as the tool which can be utilized in the whole operational risk management procedures. In this paper, useful and relevant guidance for the estimation and identification of both ‘non-generic’ and ‘generic’ scenarios is typically portrayed. Safeguards like security instrumented devices and fundamental process settings can be utilized in order to mitigate the unwanted events (Haimes). Moreover, it can also be used to reduce the dangerous situations and can be considered inside the advancement methodology and scenario recognition. This methodology ensures a constant and comprehensive approach that is intended in order to develop the risk scenarios (Marcelino-Sádaba et al.). This in turn, provides a strong base all throughout quantitative risk evaluation process and thus, improving the operational risk management procedures.
Methodology
Introduction
A research methodology can be defined as a systematic process, which a researcher undertakes in order to investigate something special for the establishment of the entire study. A research methodology is done in an appropriate manner in order to identify the issues of the study or issues of interest to warrant the rationale intended for establishing or undertaking the overall study. It generally means that the researcher of the study is required to rely on something for systematizing the study process (Merriam). Moreover, it is important to ensure that the overall study is done by creating appropriate research designs and therefore, the specialist’s philosophical placement should be necessarily determined. In this particular study, the major concern is to determine the ideal model or system for creation of tangible outcomes and carrying an evaluation of the variants for building projects (Marshall and Rossman). Moreover, the research emphasizes upon how these projects impact upon the achievement criteria inside Saudi Arabia. Prior to the collection of the main information regarding task successes inside Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, it can be visualized that the style of research has been created in such a way, that the study can optimize obtainable information sources (Creswell and Clark).
Research Philosophy
The basic reason why the researcher needs to state their specific research viewpoints is that it performs as the hidden force, which has the power of driving the researcher in making critical decisions, in accordance with the study design, methods of information collection and others. It helps in developing confidence in data collection intended for the eventual evaluation purpose (Lewis). This indicates that the principal thinking is a specialist’s steps are usually driven by the way of understanding and beliefs of the study. In addition to this, the researcher also gets driven by the abilities of interchanging natural attention, which human beings possess (Mackey and Gass).
Positivism
The positivism research approach is actually considered as a philosophical position, undertaken by the researchers who believe in organic science. This means until and unless there is any sound evidence regarding the study, which they can utilize for carrying out the tests or experiments and prove any kind of casualties, it is likely to be reviewed as irrelevant as per the researcher. According to Flick, a positivism approach of research methodology is being viewed as something which occupies an epistemological position. It helps in promoting significance and utilization of natural technology each and every time a study is related to the social fact. In addition to this, it also enables a comprehensive probing of the entire issues in order to ensure that the facts are unearthed.
Realism
In the words of Creswell and Creswell, a researcher who is capable of adopting empiricism can rely greatly on the discussions of the facts gained through experiences. Moreover, these kinds of experiences or discussions also mean that once a particular event has been undertaken, it can be used in the most detailed manner for the overall establishment of the research study. Consequently, empiricism values are the tangible proof to those which are not easily accessible from interpersonal science and are not counted heavily upon the interrogation of literature. It can be utilized as the means of countering the research trend. In addition to this, it signifies that there has to be some proofs regarding scientific nature, moving far from mere detailed views or description of the research. In simpler terms, empiricism helps in giving data or information that can be analyzed easily (Aguinis and Bradley). Furthermore, it helps in providing with tangible proofs for the decisions that come from evaluation of several data.
Justification of adopting Interpretivism and Positivism
Intended for the overall research purpose, the collection of data highly depends upon the modeling effect of variant factors build upon construction tasks of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It can be argued that it is highly essential to conduct the overall research study with both interpretivism and positivism. The positivism viewpoint will help in allowing the intended objectivity for the development of study ideas and thus, the information can be easily obtained from the research on the basis of its approach. It depends upon the research style or methods, which can be done within the research itself (Panneerselvam). Secondly, there is a need for explanation from the study’s results, when it occurs. An interpretivist philosophical approach is highly needed in order to be able to extract the deeper meanings of the phenomena that lead to the variation of elements in the task. The interpretivism approach is essential for producing more qualitative information that can become useful for the establishment of the data and information (Richey and Klein).
Knowledge philosophy
The researchers can possess various amounts of beliefs regarding the exact valuable understanding and finally this can impact the knowledge procedures of addition and creation. Moreover, it can be constructed on the basis of the study’s importance (Lepoutre et al.). Thus, the research needs filtration and appropriate examination, before actually adopting the methods.
Research process
Marczyk, DeMatteo and Festinger mentioned that the methods of the overall research are determined additionally by the way, where the specialist gives proper reasons and justification regarding this. Generally it means that in the research event, the entire process evolves on the basis of the priority and the results are needed to be appraised against the basic principles. On a similar note, the events of the researcher do not consist of any theories from the onset and thus, it relies heavily of the gathered information just before the development of the theories. Then the researcher can adopt another approach of reasoning.
Research Strategy
As per Stage’s and Mannin’s opinion, the general research design for any portion of the study must be known as some strategies that represents an overarching approach of applying the research on the basis of philosophical standing. Moreover, the philosophical method for understanding how the approaches are being added to this study is discussed in a detailed manner. There are three major stages which are utilized for the development of this study. According to Flick, the three specific types of research methodology are; quantitative research strategy, qualitative research methodology and mixed research methodology. The mixed research methodology allows the researcher to utilize two types of research strategies that is the qualitative strategy and the quantitative strategy, at the same time.
Qualitative Research Methodology
In the words of Mertens, the qualitative research strategy can be considered as the technique, which depends upon the qualitative information type like signs, symbols and terms. This cannot be easily indicated by using only figures. The ways they are being captured are contextualized from the procedure in order to allow interpersonal interactions. In addition to this, Choy examined that utilizing a qualitative research strategy will allow the researcher in gathering more information and not just only figures. This helps in evaluating or analyzing the work as per the context especially for developing the research study. In addition to this, the research method is appropriate for interpretivism form, where the description of the societal globe can also be indicated in various ways apart than the figures.
Quantitative Research
The quantitative research strategy can be considered as the technique, which focuses upon the collection of quantitative related data or information from the research procedures. It is done in order to analyze information or to paint an image of the type of information, which can be acquired from the existing sources. The research specialist might have to design the type of data collection mechanisms in order to allow the quantitative data in becoming central towards the method. Moreover, it also assists in the overall process of evaluation and analysis. The influence of the quantitative study methodology can be felt critically in a manner if the system of data collection method is highly organized (Aguinis and Bradley).
Adopting the Mixed Research Methodology
In this research event, the information elements need evaluation and description in an appropriate manner. This might also require the quantitative data in order to be able to generate a large meaning at the information rear. It is really imperative for the researcher to focus into the combined methodology of research, which is both quantitative and qualitative methodology. The researcher will be able to gather appropriate information from the existing sources on the basis of the paperwork, selection interviews, studies or literature in order to become familiar with the reasons behind the data or information. The research specialist can use the quantitative mechanisms in order to collect useful data, while granting a fundamental principle (Panneerselvam). In this particular situation, quantitative data collection method turns to be the essential form of the overall research procedure.
Research Processes
There are various research strategies, which can prove to be beneficial for the overall research purpose. Not all the research procedures are being adopted here as the area or the interest and basic principles are being created from the existing and relevant literature or sources (Flick). Moreover, beneath lies the fundamental overview of the research methods, which is also, referred as information collection methods.
Survey
Very often, it is being recognized that the online survey method is a cost-effective procedure of collecting the information, having a formatted question set. Most importantly, the survey process includes a detailed set of queries to be submitted to the project relevant parties or professionals for gaining authentic information or data. In addition to this, Choy opined that the questionnaire email survey methods help in gaining useful insights from a comparatively larger geographical region. Moreover, this method of online survey is considered to be cheaper and convenient than a telephonic or face to face survey. Furthermore, online survey method takes lesser time than other methods and therefore, it is considered to be more convenient and useful.
Questionnaire
There are several advantages of a written set of questionnaire, which are being discussed in this part of the study;
The respondents are able to react freely, while giving answers to the questionnaire set, without any sort of disturbances.
A set of questionnaire survey also enables a respondent to improve the response rate, which in turn increases the probability of the researcher in getting authentic views or opinions.
Moreover, a questionnaire is considered to be less intrusive than the telephonic questions or may be personal questions. This is because it can be allocated easily, simply, mail or by face to face.
It is immensely important to design the set of questionnaire in an appropriate and correct manner. If the set of survey questions is designed in a proper or correct manner, it might have the potential of addressing a large number of queries or problems successfully and with high response rate.
A questionnaire set is an effective and cheap mode of collecting information and particularly for developing the research process. It involves higher sample sizes, including the large geographic localities. Moreover, it can be extensive and economical.
The information which is obtained from the questionnaire study can be analyzed very easily and that too, in an appropriate manner. It can be done by applying the computer software deals that are commonly used. Moreover, it is not a challenging task to design an online survey questionnaire.
A set of questionnaire is considered to be the standard queries’ set, which are distributed among the respondents.
This type of questions is required to standardize the respondents’ responses, which in turn can facilitate highly effective data or information.
A questionnaire set can be regarded as a common approach for the collection of specific data or information, in which the participants can relate them-selves and therefore, they will become less anxious or apprehensive. In this manner, they will be able to answer the questions in the most appropriate and correct manner (Mertens).
Drawbacks
Along with advantages, come disadvantages and perhaps the demerits of the written questionnaire set for survey that are being discussed as follows;
Questionnaires’ study can get misconstrued and if the survey takers are not responsible enough, the information can also get misinterpreted. If the survey takers are not responsible, then the survey may not get completed in an appropriate manner, which in turn gives rise to wrong interpretation of the opinions or views. It may lead to several replications of the questionnaire set before getting delivered to the respondents. In addition to this, there is also a chance that the survey questions reach to unimportant or unconnected respondents.
There are instances, where a questionnaire set becomes unacceptable or improper at the time of analysis. In addition to this, it does not provide any flexibility.
Moreover, a survey questionnaire can be deceptive especially at the time, when the queries are not being engineered in an appropriate or correct manner. It is important to frame the questions in the most appropriate manner possible; otherwise it can change the entire meaning of the research, especially at the time of interpretation.
The information or data collected in the set of questionnaire survey method are certainly not the high quality as compared to the alternative strategies. By alternative strategies it meant, interviews, meeting, observation methods and others. It is mainly because lack of face to face interaction provides with various effects on different type of questions being asked. Moreover, the set of questions on requesting the truthful data can possibly not get influenced by the lack of face to face contact.
In addition to this, the questionnaire study can possess a less response rate, which in turn can result into a lack of confidence level within the findings. Moreover, a well designed questionnaire set has the potential in producing an improved rate of response (Marczyk, DeMatteo, and Festinger).
Interviews
The standards of information or data carried out from any interview are generally and entirely determined by the interviewer’s personality and the ability of developing the awareness among the interviewees. Moreover, it is immensely important for the interviewers to develop a great deal of conversation with the interviewees in order to get the most appropriate information possible. In addition to this, it helps in discussing the issues which are highly relevant with the topic or subject of research (Brinkmann). This is usually attained by taking the upcoming activities into consideration.
Identifying the respondents and approaching them in order to meet the objectives or goals of the research study.
Translating and utilizing these contacts in order to maintain an effective procedure of interview for accomplishing the desired study goals.
The language or the text of inquiries is to be asked and the interviewer needs to be cautious in terms of asking or framing questions.
Moreover, it is important to save the reliable and logical reactions to the study goals conducted.
An accurate and precise saving of the information is highly required in order to utilize later on, in a successful and appropriate manner. Moreover, it is highly important that the information is not being interpreted in a wrong manner, as it will be considered as unethical. Furthermore, successful utilization of the collected data will enable proper establishment of the research study.
Case Study
A set of questionnaire is referred usually as the set of queries that are devised in order to create a specific data or information. This information is required to fulfill the research study’s goals or objectives. Moreover, it is considered to be the quickest form of receiving accurate and statistical information in the best possible manner. In addition to this, the survey method involves in the distribution of the designed set of questionnaire to the participants who readily participates. Furthermore, collecting completed and existing study forms help in getting the desired investigation for the research (Lepoutre et al.).
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